Before we get back into predictions, the long-awaited (or forgotten) FF4W Survivor Pool is open for business. Sign up here:
http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/survival/2056
Password: charlesclay
The annual pool (note to those new this season: it’s only the second annual) is simply for bragging rights. Pick a different team each week. If that team loses, you’re out (no double- or triple-elimination shenanigans). If you’re the last survivor standing, I’ll give you a shout-out here and on Twitter. You won’t get that kind of prize anywhere else, much to the appreciation of everyone else.
One key piece of fantasy news: Dion Lewis hasn't practiced all week. He was present at OTAs, so this is a bit surprising. Some are speculating he might start the season on reserve/PUP, which would keep him off the field through Week 6. Or the Patriots know what they have in Lewis and might simply be waiting a week or two until he's closer to 100%. Regardless, my earlier bold prediction might have been premature; this is a situation to closely monitor, though I think the odds are still far better than 50/50 that he'll be fine for the regular season.
And now, bold predictions, featuring a Falcons backfield that isn’t what it appears to be, and a Buffalo TE who's inexplicably fallen through the cracks:
(19) Tevin Coleman (RB-43 ADP) will be a top 30 RB. Since last summer there’s been plenty of great debate on this site and elsewhere in Fantasy Land about which running back will (or should) lead the Falcons’ backfield: Devonta Freeman or Tevin Coleman. Taking a step back, Atlanta has been in the top 10 in total offensive yards in four of the past five years. But they haven’t been in the top 10 in rushing yards since 2008. Even though Freeman led all RBs in fantasy scoring last year, nearly 53% of his output was concentrated into four successive weeks. If we can assume Coleman’s fumbling problems are largely in the past, and if we accept head coach Dan Quinn’s recent acknowledgement that the Falcons are better when both lead RBs operate in unison, then Coleman has huge bounce-back potential after an injury- and mistake-filled rookie campaign. While the odds are very good that Freeman will lead this rushing attack, Coleman will be an every-week RB3 with occasional upside.
(20) Charles Clay (TE-27 ADP) will be a top 12 TE. Bizarrely, Clay’s average draft position hasn’t budged in weeks. He’s the biggest TE bargain in fantasy drafts. On pace for a 650/4 line last season, he’s too talented to be a TE2/3 role player. Sometimes I wonder if guys like Clay fall through the cracks because some famous fantasy writer forgets about him in her/his early preseason rankings, and then other folks use those rankings as a starting point for crafting their own rankings, and no one of note challenges the famous writer’s assumption about this player's fantasy irrelevance. Too cynical or crass? Possibly. But among Fantasy Pros-compiled experts—89 people with fantasy pages and readers and earned respect—zero place Clay inside the top 12, and only six give him top 16 billing. I know several of these experts; they’re good people who, like me, miss sometimes. So I’m sounding the alarm on Clay: this will be a big miss. Draft Clay as a low-end TE1 with some weekly pop, and if your friends ask you how you knew, tell them to pay up and leave you alone.
http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/survival/2056
Password: charlesclay
The annual pool (note to those new this season: it’s only the second annual) is simply for bragging rights. Pick a different team each week. If that team loses, you’re out (no double- or triple-elimination shenanigans). If you’re the last survivor standing, I’ll give you a shout-out here and on Twitter. You won’t get that kind of prize anywhere else, much to the appreciation of everyone else.
One key piece of fantasy news: Dion Lewis hasn't practiced all week. He was present at OTAs, so this is a bit surprising. Some are speculating he might start the season on reserve/PUP, which would keep him off the field through Week 6. Or the Patriots know what they have in Lewis and might simply be waiting a week or two until he's closer to 100%. Regardless, my earlier bold prediction might have been premature; this is a situation to closely monitor, though I think the odds are still far better than 50/50 that he'll be fine for the regular season.
And now, bold predictions, featuring a Falcons backfield that isn’t what it appears to be, and a Buffalo TE who's inexplicably fallen through the cracks:
(19) Tevin Coleman (RB-43 ADP) will be a top 30 RB. Since last summer there’s been plenty of great debate on this site and elsewhere in Fantasy Land about which running back will (or should) lead the Falcons’ backfield: Devonta Freeman or Tevin Coleman. Taking a step back, Atlanta has been in the top 10 in total offensive yards in four of the past five years. But they haven’t been in the top 10 in rushing yards since 2008. Even though Freeman led all RBs in fantasy scoring last year, nearly 53% of his output was concentrated into four successive weeks. If we can assume Coleman’s fumbling problems are largely in the past, and if we accept head coach Dan Quinn’s recent acknowledgement that the Falcons are better when both lead RBs operate in unison, then Coleman has huge bounce-back potential after an injury- and mistake-filled rookie campaign. While the odds are very good that Freeman will lead this rushing attack, Coleman will be an every-week RB3 with occasional upside.
(20) Charles Clay (TE-27 ADP) will be a top 12 TE. Bizarrely, Clay’s average draft position hasn’t budged in weeks. He’s the biggest TE bargain in fantasy drafts. On pace for a 650/4 line last season, he’s too talented to be a TE2/3 role player. Sometimes I wonder if guys like Clay fall through the cracks because some famous fantasy writer forgets about him in her/his early preseason rankings, and then other folks use those rankings as a starting point for crafting their own rankings, and no one of note challenges the famous writer’s assumption about this player's fantasy irrelevance. Too cynical or crass? Possibly. But among Fantasy Pros-compiled experts—89 people with fantasy pages and readers and earned respect—zero place Clay inside the top 12, and only six give him top 16 billing. I know several of these experts; they’re good people who, like me, miss sometimes. So I’m sounding the alarm on Clay: this will be a big miss. Draft Clay as a low-end TE1 with some weekly pop, and if your friends ask you how you knew, tell them to pay up and leave you alone.