More top 250 rankings updates, and more bold predictions as we get closer to #50:
First, the rankings (click link, or open JPGs below):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19vlUTs-U6eu9JaLkR2Pu1feABpWX_LYv0BiyYxs2qsA/edit?usp=sharing
Notable movers since yesterday include LeSean McCoy, whose hamstring injury and upcoming MRI are a reminder that back-to-back 314-carry seasons come with risks. I've moved him down several RB spots in anticipation of a questionable Week 1 tag, and the likelihood that Buffalo will play it safe with their franchise player.
Brandon Coleman, who's inching closer to locking up the #3 WR spot in New Orleans--particularly important because #2 wideout Marques Colston is slowing down.
Danny Woodhead (8+ TD potential) is also moving up, as Melvin Gordon is looking a little more like a two-down back than a three-down one.
For you 2-QB leaguers, Tyrod Taylor makes the list, as he’s close to securing the starting job in Buffalo. As a result, Sammy Watkins gets a bump, because (thankfully for all you Bills fans) E.J. Manuel isn’t likely to throw to him all year.
And James White creeps back onto the too 250 as a potential third-down back in New England. Between him and Bolden and Gray and Cadet, someone will play a bigger-than-expected role this season. White's currently in the lead from my perspective.
Now let's segue into the bold predictions:
(44) Charles Sims -- RB43 ADP
Prediction: Not a top 60 RB
Sims' overall draft position is 130th. Think about that: In the average 12-team league, someone's grabbing him in the 11th round. There's so much talent to be had in the 11th round and beyond. Yet people are repeatedly settling for a backup RB who mustered 2.8 yards per carry last season. There are many better backups on many TD-friendlier teams. Even the fantasy intelligentsia are getting in on the action: Fantasy Pros' composite of 47 industry experts ranks Sims 45th among RBs. Many rank him in the 30s. Drafting mediocrity is a waste of a pick. Expect no more than 400 total yards and 1-2 TDs for Sims.
(45) Pierre Garcon -- WR45 ADP
Prediction: Top 30 WR
Fantasy football is all about timing. Some guys play surprisingly well one week and then suck the next. Some are great one year and then terrible the next. If you time it wrong, you're a double-loser. If you time it right . . . well, that's where champions are born.
One of my bold predictions last preseason was that Garcon wouldn't be a top 25 WR:
https://www.facebook.com/FantasyFootballForWinners/posts/719594671421848
He had just come off a season where he scored the 13th most fantasy points among WRs. Most experts ranked him in the top 16. But he was painfully overrated. He finished 54th last season--far worse than even I anticipated. Andre Holmes was 53rd. That gives you a sense of how ineffective Garcon was.
But this season the pendulum will swing back. He’s too talented not to rebound, as the Redskins are (I believe) too smart to once again marginalize their second best receiver. Expect 900+ yards and 6+ TDs, making Garcon a huge steal late in drafts.
First, the rankings (click link, or open JPGs below):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19vlUTs-U6eu9JaLkR2Pu1feABpWX_LYv0BiyYxs2qsA/edit?usp=sharing
Notable movers since yesterday include LeSean McCoy, whose hamstring injury and upcoming MRI are a reminder that back-to-back 314-carry seasons come with risks. I've moved him down several RB spots in anticipation of a questionable Week 1 tag, and the likelihood that Buffalo will play it safe with their franchise player.
Brandon Coleman, who's inching closer to locking up the #3 WR spot in New Orleans--particularly important because #2 wideout Marques Colston is slowing down.
Danny Woodhead (8+ TD potential) is also moving up, as Melvin Gordon is looking a little more like a two-down back than a three-down one.
For you 2-QB leaguers, Tyrod Taylor makes the list, as he’s close to securing the starting job in Buffalo. As a result, Sammy Watkins gets a bump, because (thankfully for all you Bills fans) E.J. Manuel isn’t likely to throw to him all year.
And James White creeps back onto the too 250 as a potential third-down back in New England. Between him and Bolden and Gray and Cadet, someone will play a bigger-than-expected role this season. White's currently in the lead from my perspective.
Now let's segue into the bold predictions:
(44) Charles Sims -- RB43 ADP
Prediction: Not a top 60 RB
Sims' overall draft position is 130th. Think about that: In the average 12-team league, someone's grabbing him in the 11th round. There's so much talent to be had in the 11th round and beyond. Yet people are repeatedly settling for a backup RB who mustered 2.8 yards per carry last season. There are many better backups on many TD-friendlier teams. Even the fantasy intelligentsia are getting in on the action: Fantasy Pros' composite of 47 industry experts ranks Sims 45th among RBs. Many rank him in the 30s. Drafting mediocrity is a waste of a pick. Expect no more than 400 total yards and 1-2 TDs for Sims.
(45) Pierre Garcon -- WR45 ADP
Prediction: Top 30 WR
Fantasy football is all about timing. Some guys play surprisingly well one week and then suck the next. Some are great one year and then terrible the next. If you time it wrong, you're a double-loser. If you time it right . . . well, that's where champions are born.
One of my bold predictions last preseason was that Garcon wouldn't be a top 25 WR:
https://www.facebook.com/FantasyFootballForWinners/posts/719594671421848
He had just come off a season where he scored the 13th most fantasy points among WRs. Most experts ranked him in the top 16. But he was painfully overrated. He finished 54th last season--far worse than even I anticipated. Andre Holmes was 53rd. That gives you a sense of how ineffective Garcon was.
But this season the pendulum will swing back. He’s too talented not to rebound, as the Redskins are (I believe) too smart to once again marginalize their second best receiver. Expect 900+ yards and 6+ TDs, making Garcon a huge steal late in drafts.