Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Alex Smith a “middling” QB (in the best sense of the word)?
2. Will Jamaal Charles go back to being the Chiefs’ bell cow RB?
3. Can Jeremy Maclin return to his 2014 production level?
4. Who will win the #2 WR position battle?
5. Is Travis Kelce a top 6 TE?
In the past couple of seasons I’ve oscillated between prescient Chief predictions and awful Chief predictions. On the positive side, I pushed Travis Kelce hard two preseasons ago when he was almost universally projected as a bottom-10 starting TE. I was almost alone in pushing Charcandrick West last preseason and then during the regular season when Jamaal Charles was still healthy. On the flip side, I painfully underestimated Alex Smith and Jeremy Maclin last preseason.
So let’s begin with Smith’s outlook. He performed better than I expected last year, in large part due to doubling his rushing yards and rushing TDs vs. the year before. Ironically, in the face of a QB-27 ADP this preseason, I view the veteran game manager as a slight bargain, worthy of 2-QB leagues. Recognize, however, that a healthy Jamaal Charles will limit Smith’s upside, as the QB averaged 14.8 fantasy points last year in weeks 1-5 (when Charles played) and 16.8 after Charles’ season-ending injury.
Speaking of Charles, for the second straight preseason I’m bucking conventional wisdom and urging readers to pass on his favorable ADP (RB-6 vs. RB-12 FF4W). It’s not that he’s incapable of dominating; at 29, he should still have enough gas in the tank to compete at an elite level. Rather, I don’t think the Chiefs will run him as much with two solid RBs (West and Spencer Ware) backing him up. West and Ware (my 50th and 47th ranked RBs, respectively) won’t sit on the bench collecting dust. Ware, in particular, proved to be an exceptional fill-in last season (5.6 YPC and six scores). I’m eyeing only 13-15 touches per game for Charles, and if you think that’s complete madness, consider that he averaged 16.4 in his last full season (2014). The slight drop-off will push him out of the top 10.
As alluded to above, while Maclin took a step back in K.C. compared to his 2014 blow-up for Philly, I completely misread his potential in a Chiefs uniform. His WR-22 ADP is spot-on. The problem, though, is that his upside is limited with Alex Smith at the helm. So if you’re using your 4th round pick on him, it’s a safe pick, not a transformative one. At the #2 WR spot, Chris Conley and Albert Wilson will battle out for the glory of accruing 450-600 yards and 3-5 TDs. In reality, I like Conley a lot—even drafted him in my 20-team league last season. But this isn’t a system that will fully show off his talents.
And as referenced above, I’ve been big on Kelce since the 2014 preseason, when I told readers he'd be a top 10 TE that year. Currently he’s my #3 fantasy TE (compared to a TE-5 ADP), though my top 3-6 TEs will remain in flux until late August.