32 Teams in 32 Days, Day 17 -- Denver Broncos

Five Biggest Questions


On to the AFC, starting with the defending Super Bowl champs:

Five Biggest Questions:

1. Who will win the starting QB job, and does it matter?
2. Can C.J. Anderson return to dominance?
3. Can any other running back challenge for the lead-back role?
4. Is any WR worth drafting besides Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders?
5. Is any TE worth drafting?

Last year’s Super Bowl champion quarterbacks had a combined 21 touchdown passes and 24 interceptions.  Let that sink in.  It’s a wonder how bottom-5 NFL QB play, combined with a hit-or-miss running game, could contribute to a championship season.  And the point is, it didn’t.  Not really.  Denver won largely because of defense.  The Broncos’ D was #1 in yards yielded and #4 in points given up.  They were #1 in sacks and #4 in fumbles recovered.  Their 182 fantasy points (standard scoring) was better than all but seven WRs, all but three RBs, and every TE (including Gronk).  If Von Miller gets under contract and if Aqib Talib’s gunshot injury mess gets sorted out, this will once again be a defense-centric team.

Beyond defensive talent, two other variables contribute to this narrative.  First, the QB situation: Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler are gone, replaced by the middling-at-best Mark Sanchez and the (presumably) not-quite-NFL-ready Paxton Lynch.  And Trevor Siemian is the only QB holdover from last year, when he learned from one of the NFL’s all-time greats.  In 1-QB leagues I’m passing on whoever starts, and in 2-QB leagues I’m taking a flier on Sanchez (if he’s named the starter) if the top 20-24 QBs are off the board.

This can’t go well for Demaryius Thomas or Emmanuel Sanders, can it?  Thomas’s WR ADP (16) is far rosier than where I’ve pegged him (WR-26).  Last year’s 13th highest scoring fantasy WR will regress through no fault of his own.  While in most drafts he’s off the board by the late second or early third round, I’d hold off until the early fifth (i.e. someone else will grab him first).  Sanders, too, is overrated (WR-28 ADP vs. WR-36 FF4W).  Denver is at least a couple seasons away from having a prolific aerial attack; this is a year to let someone else draft Sanders too early.  Among the other wideouts, neither Bennie Fowler nor Jordan Norwood are reliable fantasy options.  That leaves Cody Latimer, who I errantly predicted would post WR3/4 numbers last season.  He’s merely a deep-bench dynasty stash at this stage, though I can name dozens of dynasty stashes I’d rather have on my bench.  Unless Latimer busts out in August, I can’t imagine discussing him again in 2016 (barring an injury to Thomas or Sanders).

In the backfield, I joined most folks last preseason in predicting great things from C.J. Anderson.  But unlike most folks, I kept pushing him for far too long.  Although he showed flashes of brilliance, inconsistency doomed me and anyone else who invested a first round pick on him.  This year I once again want him on my team, though obviously at a reduced price.  His WR-16 ADP is entirely reasonable; he’s 14th on my board, with the belief that top-5 RB numbers are doable.  The Broncos could have let him walk this offseason, but instead matched the Dolphins’ offer to retain their best running back.  Anderson is a huge bounce-back candidate.  As I pointed out repeatedly last fall, Ronnie Hillman isn’t the answer, while rookie Devontae Booker doesn’t appear ready to step into the lead-back role.

I realize the Broncos released Owen Daniels to save cap money.  But his 517 yards on 46 catches will not be replaced by the current trio vying for snaps.  Virgil Green, Garrett Graham, and Jeff Heuerman are not fantasy options, period.  None will be a top 25 TE this season, and none are worth holding for dynasty purposes.