Five Biggest Questions
1. Can Kirk Cousins be a QB1?
2. Will Matt Jones keeping the starting RB job all season?
3. Is Josh Doctson every-week-starter material this year?
4. Can Jamison Crowder carve out a meaningful role?
5. Should Jordan Reed’s injury history undercut his value?
A couple of times last summer, when Kirk Cousins’ ADP was in the 40s and RGIII was Washington’s presumptive starter, I pushed Cousins as the Redskins’ best QB and as a bargain-basement fantasy QB:
http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2015/08/off-radar-players-with-breakout.html
A year later, RGIII is clinging to relevancy in Cleveland while the nearly 30-year-old Colt McCoy has to be wondering if he’ll carry a clipboard every day for the next three years. On Washington sports stations, experts debate whether the ‘Skins are better off today than they were three preseasons ago (following RGIII’s Pro Bowl rookie year).
It’s come to this. The pendulum has swung the other way. Cousins apparently is every bit the top 10 fantasy QB we saw in 2015. Except he isn’t. Last year he enjoyed seven 20+ point fantasy performances. Those games came against:
- Buccaneers (league-worst 70% completion percentage for opposing QBs)
- Saints (second-most passing yards yielded and most passing TDs given up)
- Giants (most passing yards yielded)
- Bears (tied for second-fewest interceptions and tied for fifth-most passing TDs given up)
- Bills (tied for ninth-most passing TDs given up)
- Eagles (2 games) (third-most passing yards yielded and second-most passing TDs given up)
Yes, every QB gets opportunities to feast on bad teams. But Cousins’ tale of two seasons suggests he hasn’t yet reached the “weekly starter” tier. And his 2016 schedule is even tougher. Washington’s latest savior is my 16th ranked QB with room to stumble if the stocks of lower-ranked guys rise.
Those who read FF4W last preseason also knew my views on Matt Jones, who was one of my favorite off-the-radar RBs (while Alfred Morris was one of my “stay away” RBs):
www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2015/09/bold-predictions-alfred-morris-and-matt.html
Jones is my 34th ranked RB this preseason, nine spots below his positional ADP. If he holds onto the ball this preseason (he lost four fumbles last year), I’ll bump him up. But I wouldn’t count on him as anything more than a back-end RB2. The remaining RBs’ potential is up in the air until Washington decides whether to sign a veteran back like Pierre Thomas; if the team doesn’t, then Chris Thompson, Keith Marshall, or Mack Brown will be on the handcuff radar—yet at this time none will be worth drafting in even 16+ team leagues.
The receiver situation is more muddled than most people realize. DeSean Jackson (WR-34 ADP) is priced about right, though he’s not a team’s typical #1 WR. Examining other teams’ #1 WRs, in his last two seasons Jordy Nelson had 5.7 receptions per game. T.Y. Hilton, 4.9. Julian Edelman, 6.7. And so on. DJax? 3.4. Week to week, he’s one of the biggest boom-bust WR1/2/3s in fantasy. I’ll let him fall to me, but I won’t reach for him. Pierre Garcon (WR-74 ADP vs. WR-94 FF4W) is another guy I won’t reach for. Most of the fantasy world has finally come to realize that he’s merely a solid receiver whose one blow-up season came when Santana Moss and Leonard Hankerson were the other main options and rookie TE Jordan Reed missed about half the year.
If I’m drafting Redskin wideouts this season, they’ll be rookie Josh Doctson and second-year standout Jamison Crowder. Neither guy is assured a starting role, yet both are terrific dynasty stashes who might be starters next season. Doctson should be viewed as a WR5 with WR4 upside heading into August, while Crowder—if he can win a starting job outright—would be a WR4 out of the gate. Crowder caught an incredible 59 of 78 targets last year on his way to a 604/2 season. Possessing a WR-86 / overall 278 ADP, if he’s starting Week 1, he’ll be one of the most underrated WRs in fantasy.
Finally, Jordan Reed finally put it all together in 2015 after two injury-plagued campaigns. That he was the #2 fantasy scoring TE despite missing two games is all the more impressive. While I align with conventional wisdom regarding his WR-2 ADP, I differ on his overall ranking (42 ADP vs. 52 overall). When drafting a guy of his caliber, injury history matters. If he plays all 16 games, he’ll be a bargain at his current overall ADP. If he misses at least two games (as I expect), he’ll be worth no more than a fifth rounder in 12-team leagues. And if he does miss time, Niles Paul will become a must-add top 14 TE. What about Vernon Davis? One of my worst 2015 picks, he’s a safe bet to remain irrelevant this year.