Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Sam Bradford build off his modest 2015 career year?
2. Will Ryan Mathews stay healthy?
3. Can Wendell Smallwood carve out a meaningful role?
4. Will Rueben Randle once again be a top 30 WR?
5. Can Zach Ertz be an every-week starter?
The Eagles were the third highest scoring NFL team in 2014. Last season they were 14th. This year they’ll be in the 20’s. And that’s a fitting way to kick off Philly’s fantasy rundown.
Sam Bradford enjoyed his most productive season last year, and that’s not a good thing. The 24th highest scoring fantasy QB, he might have reached #20 had he played all 16 games. But buying into Philadelphia’s offense means buying into Bradford, and that’s a big leap to take for an oft-injured five-year veteran whose average fantasy draft position is 31st among QBs. Bradford must take a step forward to stave off #2 overall pick Carson Wentz or longtime backup Chase Daniel. Regardless, whoever runs this offense for the brunt of the season won’t be doing his receivers any favors.
In the backfield, DeMarco Murray is gone, Darren Sproles is a year closer to joining the AARP, and Ryan Mathews is 1-for-6 on playing a full season. I have no choice but to believe that Mathews will lead the running back corps if healthy, though his RB-21 ADP is shortsighted. He’s #32 on my list because I don’t trust his durability and doubt he’ll garner enough scoring opportunities. Sproles is my 60th ranked RB (vs. RB-53 ADP) because I think Wendell Smallwood (RB-62 ADP) will cut into Sproles’ production. While poor in pass protection, Smallwood has the benefit of playing in backfield that might be in flux by September. I’m targeting him late in deep drafts to see if I strike gold. So to summarize, Mathews is the pick you’ll want to take back; Sproles is the nothing-to-lose pick who’ll get you 2-3 nice games and plenty of heartburn; and Smallwood is the ultimate flier with RB3 upside if/when Mathews gets hurt.
At receiver, Jordan Matthews’ strong finish salvaged what had appeared to be a sophomore slump season. He should once again be a WR2/3 most weeks, but his upside is capped below most other WR2/3s. Meanwhile, last year at this time, most experts were talking up Nelson Agholor. What a horrible 12 months it’s been for the 2015 draft’s 20th overall pick. He was entirely ineffective in a starting role last season, and now he's being investigated for sexual assault. On the field, both he and Josh Huff dropped a lot of balls in OTAs, and at this point it’s quite likely neither of them takes a step forward. That leaves Rueben Randle as the obvious choice for top 50 WR numbers (he’s my 48th ranked WR vs. a bizarre WR-79 ADP), with a chance at cracking the top 40 if Bradford (or whoever’s QB’ing) elevates the offense. Regardless, Randle is the Eagles’ biggest bargain among all offensive fantasy players.
In the span of about 30 hours in January, the Eagles locked up Zach Ertz (my 14th ranked TE vs. TE-10 ADP) and Brent Celek with multi-year contracts. Everyone in the fantasy and real worlds understands which tight end is a more valuable playmaker. But Celek has other attributes, and the double-signing is a reminder that he’ll continue to cap Ertz’s upside. Last year’s 10th highest scoring TE, Ertz was around 20th before a blistering three-game finish (352 yards and a TD) put him in the must-start camp. I’m tepid about his chances of replicating last season’s numbers for all the reasons outlined above. He’ll remain a spot-starter for yet another year, with occasional blow-up numbers and too many four-catches-for-28-yards performances.