Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Eli Manning build off of his age-34 career year?
2. Will Rashad Jennings lead the backfield for another season?
3. Does Paul Perkins merit a fantasy draft pick?
4. Can Sterling Shepard live up to the hype?
5. Who will be the #1 tight end?
The Giants’ last 10+ win season came in 2010. Their last season with two formidable receivers was in 2011—when they last won the Super Bowl. This team enters 2016 in some disarray on both sides of the ball, yet possessing enough offensive talent to be dangerous.
The offense is relevant because of two key players. The first is Eli Manning, who’s coming off arguably his best NFL season: a career-high 93.6 QB rating, a career-high 35 TD passes, and his second-highest marks in passing yards and completion percentage. Offensive Coordinator (and newly minted Head Coach) Ben McAdoo is credited with jumpstarting this offense. But there’s more to this story: A rapidly declining defense (the Giants gave up the third most points in the NFL last year) and a middling running game led by oft-injured 31-year-old Rashad Jennings has forced Eli to make more throws in each of the past two seasons than in any other year. Rare cases aside, more throws lead to more production. While Eli might be a back-end QB1 this season, I’m withholding final judgment (and keeping his ranking down) until August, when I can see how the rest of the offense (and defense) looks.
No doubt, Odell Beckham is the team’s other key piece. ODB proved last year that his rookie campaign was no fluke. There’s not much more to say, other than top 5 WR fantasy numbers are once again likely. On the other side of the hash marks, second-round NFL draft pick Sterling Shepard is drawing hype akin to an early first rounder (NFL draft-wise, not fantasy draft-wise). The popular saying, “Well, someone has to catch the ball . . .”, doesn’t necessarily apply here. On whether Shepard will be an every-week fantasy starter. I’m reserving judgment until he prove what he can do in August. He’s my 43rd ranked WR with room to shift a little bit in either direction.
It’s hard to believe Victor Cruz’s average WR draft position last September was 33rd. That’s what happens when enough experts lead people astray. But here on FF4W, Cruz took a backseat to the highly undervalued Rueben Randle. Those who joined me in rejecting conventional wisdom reaped the benefits:
http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2015/09/bold-prediction-rueben-randle.html
This preseason Cruz will try to salvage his career at only 29 years old. He hasn’t played a regular season snap since 2014. There’s little reason to believe he’ll offer any fantasy value. The same goes for Dwayne Harris. Both guys are undraftable longshots who are as likely to break through as most non-top-50 WRs (i.e. very unlikely).
At running back, Jennings turned his season around in December in what was otherwise a highly ineffective season. His RB-35 ADP is a bit generous (he's 40th in my rankings). On the flip side, rookie Paul Perkins is overrated at his RB-52 ADP (vs. RB-74 FF4W). If he shows well in August, I'll get on the Perkins bandwagon as a potential RB4. But nothing I've seen thus far suggests Jennings will split time in September--only that Jennings is not a reliable starting fantasy RB. Shane Vereen is priced right at his RB-65 ADP, while either Orleans Darkwa or Andre Williams will primarily ride the pine while the other is cut in August. As alluded to above, this offense will essentially move through the air, not on the ground.
Aside from Shepard, most of my Giants-related focus is on the tight end battle between Larry Donnell (623/6 in 2014) and Will Tye (464/3 in 2015). Tye was a viable back-end TE1 after assuming starting duties when Donnell suffered a season-ending neck injury. Tye earned 7+ fantasy points in five of his last six games and would jump into my top 16 if he wins the job this preseason. His current WR-28 ADP doesn’t factor in his potential, so he’s a name to stash if he’s named the starter.