32 Teams in 32 Days, Day 13 -- Dallas Cowboys

Total coincidence that the NFL's supposed "America's Team" fantasy rundown falls on Independence Day.  And happy 4th, everybody.


Five Biggest Questions



1. Can Tony Romo stay on the field?
2. Will Ezekiel Elliott's output match the hype?
3. Will a healthy Dez Bryant return to elite form?
4. Are any other Dallas receivers worth drafting?
5. Is Jason Witten still a reliable TE1?

To say the 2015 Cowboys were a disappointment is an understatement.  To suggest it’s a sign of things to come?  Well, read on and decide for yourself.

Tony Romo is the quintessential back-end QB1: He’s always a good bet for about 4,000 passing yards and about 32 TDs.  That, of course, assumes the 36-year-old can stay on the field; three times he’s broken his left collarbone, including during last year’s lost season.  His last 16-game campaign was in 2012.  Those drafting him at his current QB-10 ADP (vs. 15th for FF4W) will assuredly get solid returns on that investment if he remains healthy.  But in a year when any of 20 QBs could finish in the top 10, I’m playing the percentages and passing.

Darren McFadden’s freakish at-home elbow injury further cements rookie Ezekiel Elliott’s standing as Dallas’s likely bell cow RB.  Coming off his most productive season since 2010, McFadden was a good bet for 100-150 touches, which would have helped ease Elliott into the NFL.  Not guaranteed to be healthy by Week 1, McFadden probably will cede the near-term #2 role to Alfred Morris, whose across-the-board, year-by-year decline since 2012 is no fluke.  Even at only 20 years old, Elliott is the most talented RB in this backfield and is likely to run away with the job out of the gate.  The rookie is my 7th ranked RB and has room to improve if he shows well in August.

A Week 1 broken bone in his right foot made 2016 largely a lost season for Dez Bryant.  If Romo were 25 with a fairly clean injury history, Dez would be among my top 3 WRs.  But my lack of faith in Romo’s ability to play at a high level all season—or to play in all 16 games, for that matter—knocks Dez just outside my top 10.  Quite simply, if Romo misses time, Dez’s numbers will suffer, and that’s a greater risk than I want to take with a guy who, on average, is being selected with the 11th overall pick.

This thinking has a ripple effect on how I view the Cowboys’ other notable wide receivers.  Terrance Williams underperformed dramatically last season when thrust into the #1 receiver role.  His upside is that of a TD-dependent receiver; you either get lucky rostering him, or you get burned.  He’s my 47th ranked WR who could swing 10 spots in either direction.  Cole Beasley is further behind as his offense’s sixth or seventh option.  That leaves Brice Butler, the Raiders’ 2013 7th-round pick who strung together a couple of strong performances with Dallas to close out last season.  Some are buying into his big-play ability.  I’m not, and won’t unless his August is otherworldly.

Finally, the almost-always-reliable Jason Witten (hasn’t missed a game in 12 seasons) is an over-draft risk.  My 15th ranked TE, he produced artificially un-Witten-like numbers in 2015, in large part due to Romo’s extended absence.  But let’s be clear: at 34 years old, he’s on the downside of a fantastic career.  His yards-after-catch have declined sharply since 2013, while he’s no longer a good bet for 100 targets.  I’m looking elsewhere for TE1 production.