Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Teddy Bridgewater a bottom-5 QB?
2. Will Adrian Peterson continue to dominate?
3. Will Laquon Treadwell be Bridgewater’s #1 target?
4. Can Stefon Diggs build off of his rookie campaign?
5. Is Kyle Rudolph fantasy relevant?
Many believed Teddy Bridgewater would take a step forward last year after an expectedly pedestrian rookie campaign. Aside from a slight dip in turnovers per game, he regressed across the board. Was this due to Bridgewater, to one of the NFL’s least talented receiver corps, or to Adrian Peterson’s dominant role (357 touches)? Clearly, it was a combination of the three. Despite being my 29th ranked QB, Bridgewater has top 20 potential if the other two factors—particularly AP’s impact—reverse themselves. The Vikings were last in the NFL in pass attempts and second-to-last in passing yards and passing TDs. Yet they were a respectable 18th in yards per attempt. While Bridgewater is entirely capable, it’s still AP’s offense. If All-Day’s production diminishes this season, we’ll see a near-comparable uptick in Bridgewater’s numbers.
And that’s a good segue to Peterson, who crushed it last year like no 30+ year-old RB since Ricky Williams. He’s my #10 RB this preseason (vs. an RB-4 ADP), and could dip outside the top 10 by August. What? Sacrilege! How dare I do this to AP. None of the big-name experts place him below 4th, and among 76 expert rankings compiled by Fantasy Pros, no one’s got him worse than 8th. Why am I such an idiot?
This isn’t the first time I’ve questioned conventional wisdom regarding Peterson. In a little-read post nearly three years ago (back when this page had only about 50 likes), I shared why AP’s universal #1 overall ranking was a crock:
https://www.facebook.com/FantasyFootballForWinners/posts/554782841236366
The signs are even clearer heading into 2016, not only because of concerns over age (31 1/2) and workload (350+ touches is a moderate red flag), but also because of Jerick McKinnon (FF4W RB-45 vs. RB-58 ADP)—a very talented RB with strong back-to-back seasons and who, according to head coach Mike Zimmer, should play a bigger role this year. We might even see a little bit of recent signee Jhurell Pressley as a complementary change-of-pace back. So I’m passing on AP at his present value and targeting McKinnon as a top 5 handcuff. We’ll know by November whether my insanity pays off.
At wide receiver, rookie Laquon Treadwell naturally comes with a lot of hype, but I’m not yet buying his WR-43 ADP. He’s my 52nd ranked WR, four spots ahead of Stefon Diggs (WR-44 ADP). One of these guys will move up by August, though not both—not in this offense. And remember Charles Johnson? He was a hot fantasy commodity in 2014 before falling off the rails last season. The word is that a rib injury limited him since last September. While there’s no room for him to thrive in this offense at the moment, an injury to Treadwell or Diggs could give him one more chance to be fantasy relevant. Rounding out this unit, Jarius Wright should be drafted only in 20+ team leagues, and has little upside even if Treadwell or Diggs are sidelined.
Meanwhile, Kyle Rudolph—the same guy I’ve tagged as “overrated” every preseason since 2013—was able to stay healthy last year for the first time since 2012. That said, he was only the 14th highest scoring tight end, barely ahead of three guys (Julius Thomas, Zach Miller, and Jimmy Graham) who missed good chunks of the season. The addition of Treadwell pushes him down a few more pegs. 50% of his games last year produced three fantasy points or less. I’m not touching him in any 14-team league.