Five Biggest Questions
2. Will LeSean McCoy return to RB1 prominence?
3. Are Karlos Williams or Mike Gillislee draftable?
4. Is Sammy Watkins a WR1?
5. Is Charles Clay draftable?
I was way too late to the party on Tyrod Taylor last season. The former Baltimore backup wasn’t even on my radar last preseason, as I thought he’d struggle even if he beat out E.J. Manuel for the job. The 16th highest scoring QB averaged 18.4 fantasy points per game—half a point better than Aaron Rodgers. That said, I’m not yet convinced, and neither is the fantasy community. Owning a QB-19 ADP, Taylor is also my 19th ranked QB. He averaged about two fewer fantasy points per game when Sammy Watkins was sidelined, and Watkins’ questionable health to start the season should be a concern. Taylor has QB1 streaming potential any week Watkins is on the field, but over a full season I’m not investing heavily in him in this run-friendly offense.
LeSean McCoy is a nice bounce-back candidate after struggling with injuries last season. He’s my 11th ranked RB (vs. RB-12 ADP), and his upside makes him a worthwhile pickup in the late second / early third round of 12-team leagues. I can’t say the same of his hugely successful 2015 fill-in, Karlos Williams, whose 5.6 YPC and nine TDs on only 104 rookie touches should have made him a must-roster RB in all fantasy leagues. Instead, his four-game suspension for substance abuse makes him a possible must-add in late September—“possible” because Mike Gillislee (5.7 YPC in 2015) will back up McCoy the first month of the season, and if he fares well, might own that complementary role the rest of the season. Gillislee has shot up to #62 on my RB rankings in the past week, and could creep into the 40s in August, while Williams has plummeted to few spots below him. Meanwhile, rookie Jonathan Williams is currently an afterthought after last week’s DUI bust.
On a side note, last week Williams was a gentleman on Twitter, joking with me at a time when I and the rest of the world thought his only challenge this preseason was getting into shape. He knew what we’d all discover a few hours later—that he’d be suspended. And yet he had the decency to make only a lighthearted jab after I warned about the fantasy impact of his poor weight and conditioning; he could have hit back much harder, and given the turmoil he was facing, I wouldn’t have blamed him if he had.
What can we make of Sammy Watkins? His big-play ability can be largely credited for making Taylor so effective on deep throws (six TDs on 35 passes beyond 30 yards). My 16th ranked WR (vs. WR-13 ADP), Watkins has monster potential in an otherwise bottom-5 receiving corps. If I overreach for the third-year standout, it’s an upside play; if I let him fall to someone else, it’s because I prefer every-week reliability. #2 WR Robert Woods is egregiously undervalued (WR-87 ADP vs. WR-56 FF4W). He allegedly played with a torn groin for about half of last season. Regardless, an 800/6 line is entirely possible, while at least 650/4 should be expected, placing him at or near the top 50. Unless Watkins misses time, the remaining WRs—Leonard Hankerson, Greg Salas, and Dezmin Lewis—are likely undraftable. All three are battling for the #3 WR job. I swung and missed on Hankerson last preseason. I will not swing again.
And I seem to be on my own with Charles Clay, whose TE-27 ADP and general disregard by experts are wildly different than my TE-9 ranking. He’s the biggest TE bargain in fantasy drafts. On pace for a 650/4 line last season, he’s too talented to remain a role player. Expect 60+ catches, 700+ yards, and 5+ TDs. And if Watkins isn’t healthy by Week 1, he’ll have top 5 upside until the star wideout returns.