Five Biggest Questions
1. How will Aaron Rodgers return to greatness?
2. Will Eddie Lacy keep his weight down?
3. Can Jordy Nelson be trusted as a WR1?
4. Could Jeff Janis be the NFC’s best #3 wideout?
5. Is Jared Cook draftable?
A year ago the Packers were a Super Bowl contender. That was before Jordy Nelson was lost for the season. This year they’re healthy and back in consideration. But it all comes down to whether the four main guys—Aaron Rodgers, Eddie Lacy, Nelson, and Randall Cobb—improve over last season. Easy enough for Nelson and for Cobb (whose bum shoulder severely limited last year’s production). The biggest question marks are Rodgers and Lacy. I’m bullish on both.
Through three games last season, Rodgers had 10 TDs and zero turnovers. But Nelson’s absence, Cobb’s injury, and Lacy’s inconsistencies forced Rodgers to throw to second-stringers (although James Jones stepped up big-time in a little more than half of his games). Rodgers managed only 22 TDs in his last 13 contests. And who could blame him? Heading into 2016, surrounded by the most talented (and deepest) offensive weapons of his career, Rodgers will return to greatness. He’s my #4 QB, and I’m taking him as soon as the early third round.
What about Eddie Lacy? Some reports highlight his offseason focus on physical fitness, as he was allegedly over 260 pounds last year. Others suggest he still might be out of shape. We won’t know until the quarter turn of the season whether he’s back in the RB1 fold—and that’s obviously too late for drafting purposes. He’s my 6th-ranked RB for now (RB-10 ADP): I’ll grab him in the early second round in a 12+ team league. But if he’s struggling by mid-August, he’s no better than a fourth rounder. Why not the eighth? Because no one is realistically capable of replacing Lacy atop the depth chart. Outside of two big games, backup James Starks compiled a 3.29 YPC in 2015. Quite simply, he’s overrated (RB-50 ADP vs. RB-63 FF4W) and undraftable.
Green Bay’s receivers are stacked. Assuming no setbacks, Jordy Nelson should return to the WR1 world. Randall Cobb is a solid bet for top 20 production: And assuming Jeff Janis (WR-70 ADP vs. WR-55 FF4W) wins the #3 receiver job, this might be the highest-upside wide receiver group in the NFC. Davante Adams is competing for the #3 job, but drops and generally underwhelming play last year are keeping him off my core draft board.
At tight end, this offseason the Packers added Jared Cook, whose most productive campaigns were in 2011 and 2013. Now 29, he’s the #4 or #5 offensive option on offense—not terrible for a TE, but given the volume of touches Jordy, Cobb, and Lacy should command, I view Cook as a mid-level TE2 with only occasional upside. Further hampering his potential is the presence of TE Richard Rodgers, who’s built almost identically to Cook (couldn’t the Packers have used their Cook money more wisely on a defensive upgrade?), and whose 58-catch, 8-TD season was no fluke. He played big when Aaron needed big plays. I envision a scenario where Rodgers and Cook form a 50-50 timeshare, especially if Rodgers refines other aspects of his game (like blocking)—a warning to anyone seriously considering Cook as their starting TE.