Five Biggest Questions
2. Is Le’Veon Bell a top 2 RB?
3. Will DeAngelo Williams be fantasy-relevant if Le’Veon Bell is healthy?
4. Who will start at WR opposite Antonio Brown?
5. Is Ladarius Green a breakout candidate?
The Steelers entered last season with (arguably) the NFL’s #1 RB, the NFL’s #1 WR, and a top 6 NFL QB. The pieces were in place to dominate offensively. That they tied for fourth in points scored is a minor miracle when you consider Ben Roethlisberger missed over four games and Le’Veon Bell missed more than 10 (including his two-game suspension). Heading into 2016, this team is primed to score 30+ points a game.
At the beginning of last summer, I wrote three successive posts on how the new extra-point rule (32-33 yard kick vs. 17-18 yard kick) would impact fantasy production across all offensive positions:
From 2012 to 2014, the average season saw 30 successful two-point conversions on 62 attempts (48%). In 2015 it popped to 45-for-94 (48%), a 50% increase of its customary application. Teams that utilized it most (Steelers: 8-for-11; Packers: 4-for-6) have vowed to go for two more often in 2016. When you consider how often Pittsburgh was missing its starting QB, starting RB, or #2 WR last season, I’d be shocked if they didn’t double their two-point output. That would translate to about a 10% bump in Big Ben’s weekly fantasy production and roughly 4-7% gains among other key players.
Current ADPs and expert rankings are not factoring in two-point potential. It’s obvious. Big Ben is a bargain at his current QB-5 / Overall-56 ADP. He’s #3/23 on my draft board. This is a pissed-off team. If not for the injuries and a vicious playoff hit on Antonio Brown, this was a 2015 Super Bowl contender. This year they’re my pick to represent the AFC in the title game, with Ben primed for a career year.
Aside from injury, the only thing that might hamper Le’Veon Bell’s breakout potential is DeAngelo Williams. The then-32-year-old Carolina cast-off was a revelation in Pittsburgh; despite earning seven or fewer touches in six games, he was last year’s 4th-highest-scoring RB. Incredible. Now 33, he will certainly give way to Bell every game. But to what extent? He’s my 48th ranked RB with plenty of room to improve. I’ll be watching closely in August to see if there’s any hint of a meaningful complementary role heading into the regular season. In the meantime, Bell is my #1 RB, and #2 overall. Again, this could change; any expanded role from Williams would hurt Bell’s value. But at this moment, I’m all in on one of the NFL’s most talented RBs, who happens to be starting in one of the NFL’s most prolific offenses.
In a fantasy oddity, the only player I’m ranking higher than Bell is teammate Antonio Brown. My history with Brown is known by some of you: In the 2013 preseason, no one ranked him better than the 20s among WRs. When my blog was still in its infancy, I went out on a limb and predicted top 10 numbers:
To give you some perspective, in a keeper auction league that year I grabbed him for $2 near the end of the draft. In another league (snake draft), I picked him in the 6th round, aligning with his ADP. Today he’s my #1 overall pick even in standard leagues, and this year I’m not alone: Among 80 expert rankings compiled by Fantasy Pros, 76 place him in the top spot; the other four list him at #2.
Among WRs, Martavis Bryant’s year-long suspension has opened the door for Markus Wheaton and/or Sammie Coates. During last season’s Bryant suspension, Wheaton averaged a disappointing two receptions for 46 yards as a starter. His WR-42 is painfully off target. He’s my #82 WR because I believe he’ll be no better than the team’s fifth—and possibly sixth—option on offense. Conversely, Sammie Coates (WR-74 ADP vs. WR-42 FF4W) is my pick to win the #2 wideout job and exceed universal expectations (no expert compiled by Fantasy Pros ranks him better than 48th). Darrius Heyward-Bey rounds out the Steelers’ likely WR contributors, though his production rests entirely on the health of those above him on the depth chart.
After spending four seasons mostly buried behind Antonio Gates in San Diego, Ladarius Green has breakout potential in Pittsburgh. The trendy pick has a TE-9 ADP), though many experts rank him anywhere from 4th to 7th. I’m a bit more conservatives at TE-11. He looked good last season during Gates’ suspension, averaging five catches for 58 yards while scoring twice in three games. But in the last two seasons he’s been out with injuries—or has played through injuries—more than your typical backup TE. While multiple concussions and ankle surgery shouldn’t raise serious red flags, they’re reminders that when a career backup is a bit injury prone, his health risks as a starter will increase more likely than not. I strongly believe Green will be a TE1; I don’t believe he’ll exceed expectations.