Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Andy Dalton a QB1?
2. Can Jeremy Hill rebound from an inconsistent 2015?
3. Will Brandon LaFell’s numbers return to 2014 levels?
4. Is Tyler Boyd draftable?
5. Should Tyler Eifert be viewed as a top 10 TE, despite the possibility of missing games?
While researching every team last preseason, I identified a few with vastly underrated players. At the top of this list were the Bengals, led by Andy Dalton, whose QB-25 ADP last August was blatantly ridiculous. Readers of this site and my Twitter page received about a dozen warnings, like this one:
https://twitter.com/bjrudell/status/635111414194171904
The problem was that nearly every fantasy expert and fantasy manager were focused on his 2014 numbers, with no filter for why he’d endured such a down season. As it turned out, last year Dalton led the NFL in passer rating before breaking his thumb on Cincy’s first drive in Week 14. His 16-game fantasy scoring projection was 312 points, which would have placed him fourth among the entire fantasy universe. Not bad for a mostly ignored QB.
But this is fantasy football. Dalton is not my friend. There can be no bias. Although Dalton might have helped some of you reach the playoffs, that doesn’t mean you owe him anything. That’s why I’m avoiding the overrated QB in this year’s drafts. His QB-14 ADP is too optimistic with Tyler Eifert hurt and his #2 and #3 WRs gone. I expect an improved running game and a diminished passing attack, translating into a #20 QB ranking.
Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard are priced about right at their respective RB-19/29 ADPs. I overreached for Hill last year in the belief he’d build off of his dominant second half of 2014. However, it’s easy to forget that he scored the 14th most RB fantasy points in 2015. True, playing all 16 games helped (several guys directly below him would have scored more had they remained healthy). But the biggest knock on him fantasy-wise was his inconsistency: seven games with 12+ fantasy points and five games with two points or less. He’s a clear-cut top 24 RB with reasonable top 10-12 upside. Expect a rebound, making him worth a fourth round pick in 12-team leagues. And once again, Gio will be the 1B to Hill’s 1A role. However, with Eifert questionable for the start of the season, Bernard should get a near-term bump before settling into 10-14 touches per contest—and fewer TD opportunities than his backfield partner.
When his career ends, A.J. Green could be an all-time great receiver . . . at least statistically. Another 10-TD season should place him within the NFL’s top 100 in that category, with a good chance of reaching the top 15 if he plays into his mid-30s. His receiving yardage isn’t Megatron-dominant, but he should crack the top 25 when all is said and done. This year Green will dominate, because frankly the Bengals don’t have a choice. Brandon LaFell (WR-83 ADP) is a marked step down from Marvin Jones at the #2 WR position. His ADP should be no worse than the mid-60s (i.e. he’s a late-round bargain in very deep leagues), but the point is that his presence vs. Marvin’s pushes Green a bit higher on the draft board. Same goes for rookie Tyler Boyd, who’s likely a season away from fantasy relevance, and therefore probably won’t best Mohammed Sanu’s 2015 Cincy numbers. These factors, as well as the murky tight end situation, are why Green is my fourth-ranked WR.
Speaking of TEs. Duke Tobin, the Bengals’ director of personnel, recently stated that “[Tight End is] a position group that’s in flux, and it’s a position group that’s going to have to step up—particularly with [Tyler] Eifert out early in the year.” No one has confirmed how many games this will be, or even whether Tobin spoke too soon. But we do know that Eifert’s TE-4 ADP no longer applies. If he’s free in the 10th round, grab him given his tremendous upside. But know that backup Tyler Kroft could earn a meaningful role if he plays well—even when Eifert returns.