Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Joe Flacco return to top 20 QB form?
2. Will Justin Forsett be the Ravens’ best RB?
3. Should Steve Smith be drafted?
4. Will Mike Wallace rebound with, at minimum, WR4 numbers?
5. Is any TE worth drafting?
There are 122 major North American league teams (sorry Major League Soccer; not yet). The Ravens’ offense contains more uncertainties heading into 2016 than any of the other 121. I’ll try to make sense of it all in a few paragraphs.
Despite recovering from ACL and MCL tears that ended his streak at 137 consecutive games played, Joe Flacco is the one constant. Do not put any weight on last year’s numbers. When Steve Smith went down for more than half the season, Kamar Aiken was the only reliable wideout among an otherwise barely pedestrian WR corps. If everyone is healthy by September (a moderately big “if” at this point), Flacco is a fantastic #2 QB with top 12-16 upside. Ranked 18th on my list, his QB-28 ADP is simply ridiculous. Grab him without hesitation in 2-QB leagues and with confidence in “best ball” leagues.
Justin Forsett was ranked as a top 14 RB last preseason by most of the fantasy world. Admittedly, I never bought into him in 2014, to the detriment of those who listened to my advice. Last October I started pushing Buck Allen and urging readers to trade high on Forsett:
http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2015/10/waiver-rbs-to-target.html
It was turning into a lost season for the Ravens. Why overwork their 30-year-old RB when a fourth-round rookie was waiting in the wings? Forsett broke his arm a few weeks later, so we’ll never know what would have happened. But the writing is on the wall: Don’t trust Forsett in 2016. His RB-33 ADP is painful to think about. He won’t even be an RB4 this season. The rest of the backfield is too crowded and too young to keep Forsett fantasy relevant. Buck Allen and even a revitalized Terrance West could vie for meaningful touches out of the gate. Lorenzo Taliaferro might play a small role if he can make the team out of camp. But my focus is on incoming rookie Kenneth Dixon. His RB-51 ADP will pop if he has a good August. If you find yourself weak at RB by Round 12, grab Dixon.
Baltimore has a collection of receivers who, at their best, could make this an objectively exciting team to watch. Does Steve Smith have enough left in the tank? Can Breshad Perriman overcome a lost 2014 season and a preseason knee injury to make good on his potential? Can Mike Wallace reassert himself as an every week fantasy starter? Will Kamar Aiken thrive surrounded by plenty of other talent? Wallace (WR-58 ADP) and Aiken (WR-56 ADP) are the safe picks who are potentially very undervalued. Smith has the most upside and the most downside. Perriman is a desperation draft pick unless his August is phenomenal (tough coming off a June injury). If I had to pick one, it’d be Wallace, my 41st ranked WR who had top 25-30 upside. In a crowded WR corps, he’s looking at top 40-50 numbers. If Perriman or Smith can’t stay healthy, Wallace will pop.
No other team has four tight ends seriously vying for significant playing time. None should be trusted at current ADPs. Benjamin Watson leads the overrated group with a TE-25 ADP. Maxx Williams is my highest ranked Baltimore TE (34th), followed closely by Dennis Pitta. Crockett Gillmore has the most upside, but is coming off shoulder surgery. While one of these guys might rise to the top, there’s no reason to burn a draft pick on such low percentages. Wait ‘til the season gets underway: If there’s a clear-cut starter, that’s the time to take a flier. But I’m not holding my breath.