Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Marcus Mariota a top 16 QB?
2. Will DeMarco Murray rebound significantly from last season’s letdown?
3. Could Derrick Henry overtake Murray this year?
4. Will Dorial Green-Beckham be the Titans’ leading receiver?
5. Is Delanie Walker a top 8 TE?
Marcus Mariota was my 19th ranked QB in my final 2015 preseason rankings and went on to finish 22nd—though he was on pace to take the #13 spot if he’d stayed healthy. Today he’s my 25th ranked QB (vs. a QB-18 ADP). What gives? Three things. First, this year there are at least 20 QBs with a legitimate shot at top 10 QB production; Mariota lacks that upside, and therefore isn’t someone I’d draft in any 1-QB league. Second, according to SB Nation, the average age of Tennessee’s offensive linemen is 23.9—far and away the NFL’s youngest o-line. Mariota was sacked last season more than three times a game in 2015. On a pass play, he’s more likely to get hit than most other QBs, and therefore is a greater injury risk. Third, the acquisitions of well-rested (cynically stated) DeMarco Murray and rookie Derrick Henry have the potential to jumpstart a running game that’s been in decline for several years.
Speaking of the backfield, last year the Titans were 28th in carries and 25th in rushing yards. In the last two years Tennessee was 24th and 29th in time of possession. Murray and Henry are signed through 2019. You better believe this team will be committed to the run in 2016. That said, for the second straight preseason I don’t trust Murray at his ADP (RB-19); he’s my 28th ranked RB, while Derrick Henry holds some value at #32 (vs. RB-37 ADP). Offensive Coordinator Terry Robiskie has acknowledged that the Titans will go with the hot hand, meaning one of these guys probably will be worth considerably more by midseason. We’ll have a better sense of who that might be by mid-August.
Tennessee’s WR situation is as fluid as any in the league. While Dorial Green-Beckham projects as a star receiver some day, his occasional flashes of brilliance in 2015 were sandwiched by duds. Most concerning, Head Coach Mike Mularkey conceded in June that he was trying to motivate DGB during training camp by pushing him down the depth chart. No NFL player should need help getting motivated. Even if he reclaims the starting job by late August, he’s at risk of struggling through another developmental year. His WR-44 ADP suggests concern. I wouldn’t draft him any earlier until the position battles shake out.
If DGB doesn’t turn a corner and Kendall Wright (WR-68 ADP) earns starts, Wright will be a nice desperation flier. Rishard Matthews cashed in after a surprisingly effective 2015 with the Dolphins, signing a three-year deal with Tennessee; his WR-76 ADP suggests he’ll be highly undervalued if he secures a starting role. While rookie Tajae Sharpe looked good in June, a very steep climb remains before reaching fantasy relevancy. I believe there’s only enough room for one Titan wide receiver in active fantasy lineups each week, and another one or two on benches. That makes Justin Hunter and Harry Douglas barely worth mentioning (there, I’m done mentioning them).
The most overrated Titan is Delanie Walker (TE-6 ADP). Only one of the 80 Fantasy Pros-compiled experts places him outside the top 9 (Draft Sharks’ Kevin English ranks him 11th). But no site projects him worse than FF4W (TE-13). Turning 32 next month, Walker has had successive career years after eight mostly forgettable seasons. More than 24% of all passes last season went to him. A healthy Wright and the additions of Matthews, Sharpe, Murray, and Henry will render Walker an afterthought on most drives. He’s a poster child for why too many people pay too much attention to a player’s previous year’s stats. Context matters.