Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Blake Bortles for real?
2. Will Chris Ivory outperform T.J. Yeldon?
3. Is Allen Robinson a WR1?
4. Is Allen Hurns a WR1/2?
5. Will Julius Thomas play to his potential?
Last summer I ignored expert opinion on Blake Bortles, Allen Robinson, and Allen Hurns, pushing all three as undervalued fantasy options:
http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2015/06/preseason-fantasy-rundown-team-9.html
The problem was, I still sold all of them short: Bortles was 2015’s 4th-highest scoring QB, Allen Robinson was the 4th-highest scoring WR, and despite missing a game, Hurns was the #14 fantasy WR. Incredible. If last year someone drafted all three at their appropriate ADPs, they would have had a QB1 and two WR1s at the cost of a 7th rounder and their two final picks.
And that's how titles are won.
This year, Bortles is my 6th-ranked fantasy QB (compared to a QB-9 ADP). There’s no reasonable reason to expect a drop-off in 2016, which is frightening if you’re a defense playing against Jacksonville. Yes, the running game should improve with the addition of Chris Ivory. But I don’t see Bortles taking a hit. Instead, a healthy Julius Thomas and possibly even a healthy Marqise Lee should help make the Jags’ aerial attack one of the league’s best. I love Bortles at his current overall 75 ADP, believing he’ll be a 6th round steal. 4,800+ passing yards and 36+ TDs are doable.
In the backfield, Ivory is an upgrade over T.J. Yeldon, who didn’t earn goal-line touches last season, and therefore fell a little short of expectations. That said, I’m envisioning a fairly balanced attacked between these two, with the experienced Ivory holding a slight advantage out of the gate. Ivory (#26 RB) and Yeldon (#35 RB) are safe draft picks in tandem, but clearly hold some midseason risk if you’ve ended up rostering the wrong one. After all, this could turn into a “hot-hand” backfield by October.
Coming out of college, Marqise Lee was touted as the more NFL-ready WR; Allen Robinson had more long-term potential. Two years later, their careers couldn’t be further apart. That said, don’t overspend on Robinson this preseason. He’s my 14th ranked WR (vs. an RB-8 ADP). In fact, none of the 80 experts compiled by Fantasy Pros list him worse than 12th, and most place him in the top 7. Bookmark this page and come back to it in four months: Everyone is overvaluing him. Robinson will regress as Lee and/or Rashad Greene (34 combined catches in 2015) get more involved; one of these two will even be worth keeping tabs on as a WR4/5 if Robinson or Allen Hurns gets hurt. Meanwhile, Hurns is properly priced at his WR-31 ADP, giving up some yards and TDs after a phenomenal sophomore campaign.
But Greene/Lee, alone, won’t cut deeply into Robinson’s and Hurns’ numbers. And it won’t just be the more effective running game. In a season that began on the sidelines with a broken hand, Julius Thomas didn’t consistently look close to his normal self until last Week 11, when he rattled off TDs in four straight games. My 7th-ranked TE (vs. a TE-11 ADP), Thomas’s receptions, yardage, and TDs will rise sharply in 2016, making him a weekly starter and positioning him as one of my favorite underrated TEs.