Five Biggest Questions
1. Will a healthy Andrew Luck return to elite QB status?
2. Is Frank Gore still an every-week starter?
3. Can T.Y. Hilton be a WR1?
4. Is Donte Moncrief an every-week starter?
5. Is Dwayne Allen a TE1?
The 2014 Colts were the NFL’s 6th highest scoring team, averaging 28.6 points per game. The 2015 Colts were the NFL’s 24th highest scoring team, averaging almost eight points fewer per game. Andrew Luck’s injury-riddled campaign was at the core of Indy’s offensive woes. The franchise quarterback is one of the biggest rebound candidates this fantasy season, with 5,000-yard and 40-TD upside. Expect top 5 fantasy QB production.
For the past three preseasons, I’ve warned that Frank Gore’s best days were behind him. While his numbers have declined slightly, I was clearly wrong: He’s remained a viable weekly starter while maintaining incredibly durability (no missed games since 2010). Now 33 years old, the fantasy universe has decided he’s due for a huge drop-off; last year’s 12th highest scoring RB possesses an RB-30 ADP. While I’m not opposed to that thinking—he’s my 27th ranked RB at the moment—his top-15 upside gives him some appeal. The one hitch is the potential that a younger RB asserts himself this preseason and earns a complementary role. Josh Ferguson (RB-64 ADP vs. RB-61 FF4W) is one candidate; the undrafted rookie is garnering buzz in the organization and should be monitored closely during preseason games. He's a top 40 candidate if he shows well next month.
T.Y. Hilton is the Colts’ most underrated fantasy talent. His WR-17 ADP is highly shortsighted, as some look at last year’s WR2 numbers without factoring how Luck’s injury stifled his upside—plus the painful impact of nine games QB’d by the barely startable Matt Hasselbeck, Charlie Whitehurst, Josh Freeman, and Ryan Lindley. 78 of the 80 experts compiled by Fantasy Pros are undervaluing Hilton; dozens place him between the high-teens and the high-20s among WRs. Only Football Guys’ Sigmund Bloom and old friend Chris Heil nail it, placing Hilton within the top 8. Yes, he’s going to be that good.
Meanwhile, Donte Moncrief is recovering from turf toe surgery and is positioned for 1,000+ yards and 5+ TDs this season. Owning a WR-33 ADP (vs. WR-27 FF4W), the 6th-7th rounder is worth a fifth round pick. The team’s #3 receiver, Phillip Dorsett, should be on everyone’s radar as a potential weekly starter if Hilton or Moncrief get hurt. But because Hilton is signed through 2020 and Moncrief through 2017, Dorsett is a risky dynasty option until at least next year.
Coby Fleener’s offseason departure opens the door for Dwayne Allen, who’s slightly undervalued at his current TE-18 ADP (vs. TE-15 FF4W). Allen hasn’t played in more than 13 games since 2012 and caught only 16 balls last year. But he’s a terrific red-zone target (eight TDs on 29 catches in 2014) and solid blocker, so he should be on the field as long as he’s healthy. If I were fairly confident he’d avoid serious injury all season, he’d move up a few spots into the top 12. For now, he’s a low-risk, late-draft selection.