Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Brock Osweiler a 2-QB league option?
2. Is Lamar Miller a top 5 RB?
3. Is DeAndre Hopkins a top 5 RB?
4. Is Will Fuller draftable?
5. Can all TEs be safely ignored?
The Texans made sizable improvements to their offense this offseason, but QB wasn’t one of them. Brian Hoyer had 19 touchdowns and only seven interceptions in 11 games last year and was on pace for a respectable 3791 passing yards. Incoming starter Brock Osweiler did less with more talent in Denver (although to be fair, he didn’t need to do much) and now joins a team with an elite RB (i.e. I don’t envision Osweiler needing to do much). For the first time since Arian Foster’s heyday, this is a team built around the running game, with the added benefit of a strong defense that should position Osweiler as more of a game manager than a playmaker. He’s a backup QB in 12-team, 2-QB leagues.
This spells trouble for DeAndre Hopkins (WR-4 ADP), who most of the world has pegged wrong. Among 80 experts compiled by Fantasy Pros, his average WR ranking is 4th and no one lists him worse than 7th. This is "groupthink" at its worst. The seemingly invincible Hopkins can’t be expected to replicate last year’s stats with Lamar Miller dominating and with the drafting of legitimate #2 WR prospect Will Fuller. It simply doesn’t make sense. He’s ranked 11th on my board, with a bottom at around 16th. That bottom will be reached if Fuller shows well in August. The rookie is priced right at his WR-53 ADP and has room to jump into the low-40s. Jaelen Strong has an outside shot to be relevant, but the offense simply isn’t built for #3 WRs. Same goes for Cecil Shorts and, unless things shift in August, rookie Braxton Miller.
Last December I realized that in 45 career starts, Lamar Miller had enjoyed 20+ carries only twice. The next phase of Miller’s career begins this season, and you better believe he’ll be used appropriately. The RB-7 ADP bell cow is my #3 RB, to be drafted in the early-mid-1st round. Alfred Blue will revert to the fantasy background after two underwhelming seasons as a spot-starter. Jonathan Grimes fades into oblivion.
The tight end battle is one to ignore. Stephen Anderson might have the most upside, but that’s mostly because we’ve seen what C.J. Fiedorowicz and Ryan Griffin can do.