Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Philip Rivers a QB1?
2. Can Melvin Gordon rebound from an underwhelming rookie year?
3. Is Keenan Allen a WR1?
4. Can newly acquired Travis Benjamin build on his breakout season in Cleveland?
5. Is Antonio Gates a TE1?
Eyeing a week schedule and an inefficient running game last September, I traded for Philip Rivers in my work league and reaped the rewards . . . until December, when his six TDs and five interceptions in the final five games ended an otherwise stellar season on a whimper. Still not embracing San Diego’s running game, I’m ranking Rivers 12th among fantasy QBs—high enough to largely replicate last year’s numbers, but not in line with his upside.
I was a huge Melvin Gordon fan last July and August, pushing him as a top 2 rookie RB. He managed a measly 3.5 YPC and zero scores. This explains his disappointing RB-26 ADP, which should be in the top 20. No one else is better suited to lead this backfield. Off the board in the 6th-7th round of drafts, Gordon is a bargain play as early as the 5th round and should earn 4th round value. Danny Woodhead, on the other hand, is overrated at an RB-34 ADP. I pushed this now-31-year-old under-the-radar RB hard last summer (http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2015/07/preseason-fantasy-rundown-team-17-san.html), and even I didn’t appreciate how good he would be. His PPR value remains fairly high, but in standard leagues we should expect a sharp regression as Gordon earns more touches.
An undervalued Keenan Allen was tearing it up last year until sustaining a lacerated kidney. He remains underrated today (WR-15 ADP vs. WR-10 FF4W), as health is the only factor keeping him from WR1 production. Meanwhile, newly acquired Travis Benjamin will seek to prove that 2015’s breakout was a sign of things to come. The fact that he could do so well in offensively challenged Cleveland suggests the strong potential for a terrific season in San Diego. While he probably won’t match last year’s stats playing second fiddle to Allen, Benjamin is an undervalued WR3/4 (WR-49 ADP vs. WR-42 FF4W). Of the remaining notable wideouts, Stevie Johnson’s 2015 stats were padded by Antonio Gates’ suspension and Allen’s injury. He and Donrelle Inman are no better than WR6/7s unless Allen or Benjamin go down.
While Antonio Gates played better than I expected in a suspension-shortened 2015 season, he’s now 36 and likely playing his final two years of professional football. The Chargers drafted highly touted Hunter Henry in April to be their TE of the future. Their TE ADPs (Gates: 13; Henry: 24) are half right: We can’t expect Henry to strike it big surrounded by so many playmakers. But Gates won’t be a top 18 TE, making him sharply overrated.