Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Derek Carr take another step forward?
2. Can Latavius Murray hold onto the starting RB job?
3. Is Amari Cooper a WR1?
4. Is Seth Roberts spot-starter material?
5. Does Clive Walford have TE1 potential?
I’m rooting for players, not uniforms. But as a professional football fan, I couldn’t help feeling proud (is that the right word?) that the Raiders are primed for their first winning season in 14 years. This storied franchise, which enjoyed 16 straight winning seasons between the 1960s and 1980s, is finally busting out of perennial rebuilding mode and assembling a playoff-caliber roster.
Derek Carr took a giant leap forward in his sophomore campaign, tacking on 700+ passing yards and 11 TDs while limiting turnovers. His 5.46 yards per pass attempt in 2014 jumped to 6.96 last year, and likely will clear 7.25 this season. I like Carr at his current QB-13 ADP (though he’s currently 14th on my list) and like him even more in dynasty.
Latavius Murray was the 11th highest scoring fantasy RB last season, yet he’s #24 on my draft board. Running behind a solid offensive line, one would expect a little more love for a potential top 10 RB. But I’m reserving judgment until August, when we’ll get to watch how Murray stacks up against rookie DeAndre Washington. I don’t want to burn a second-round pick on a guy who very well could lose his starting role. If Murray maintains a firm group deep into the preseason, he’ll jump into the RB1 conversation. As for Washington, he’s a bargain at his current RB-55 ADP (vs. RB-42 FF4W).
Amari Cooper was my 27th ranked WR last preseason (he went on to tie for 24th) and has jumped into my top 10 this season. A foot injury limited the future phenom last season, as he mustered a combined four catches for 30 years in three of his final four games. I believe he’ll clear 1,200 yards and 10 TDs, making him slightly undervalued at his WR-12 ADP. As for Michael Crabtree, last preseason I declared that his “best days are behind him.” What a horrendous prediction. This year he’s ranked 35th on my board (compared to WR-36 ADP), with the potential to creep into the high 20s depending on other players’ preseason developments. And don’t sleep on Seth Roberts (WR-77 ADP vs. WR-58 FF4W): although a 23-point Week 12 outburst accounted for 30% of his 2015 production, he’s a deep bargain with top 30 WR potential if Cooper or Crabtree are forced to sit.
Clive Walford is nestled comfortably in the “not a TE1, but not a worthless TE2” camp, a couple spots better than his TE-20 ADP. He sat out OTAs after gashing his knee in an ATV accident, though that shouldn’t limit him this preseason. The bigger question is usage. Will his offensive role grow? He scored 46 fantasy points on 28 catches. If he’d caught as many balls as Delanie Walker did, at that rate he would have been the #2 fantasy scoring TE. So Walford has top 7 potential if his usage rises. We’ll know more in 4-6 weeks. For now, I’m playing it conservatively. But he needs to be on everyone’s radar.
And while I don’t generally mention defenses in these fantasy rundowns, it’s worth noting that the Raiders are my 12th ranked DST. Their improvement on that side of the ball, combined with continued offensive development, make this Silver-and-Black unit as interesting from a fantasy perspective as any we’ve seen in 15 years.