Five Biggest Questions
1. How will Calvin Johnson’s retirement impact Matthew Stafford?
2. Will Ameer Abdullah earn and keep the lead-back role?
3. Will Theo Riddick’s role continue to expand?
4. Can Golden Tate be a near-elite WR?
5. Is Eric Ebron draftable?
In the mid-to-late 1990s, Major League Baseball’s Seattle Mariners had two elite hitters in their primes: Ken Griffey, Jr. and Alex Rodriguez. In their final season together—1999—the team’s record was 79-83. The next year, minus Griffey, they were 91-71. The year after that, with ARod now gone too, they led the majors in runs scored en route to an MLB-record-tying 116 wins.
There is a belief in fantasy land that Calvin Johnson’s retirement will weaken the Lions’ offense. This might be true. But I see this team differently, with a bullish outlook on Detroit’s underrated offense. Matthew Stafford (QB-17 ADP) is my 11th ranked QB. In Detroit’s final eight games last season—coinciding with Offensive Coordinator Jim Bob Cooter replacing fired coach Joe Lombardi—Stafford amassed 2,179 yards and 19 TDs on a 70% completion rate. Oh, and he threw only two picks. Calvin accounted for 555 of those yards and six of those scores; there was plenty else to go around.
Ameer Abdullah (RB-27 ADP vs. 21 on FF4W) is a modest sleeper. A highly touted rookie entering camp last preseason, he struggled under OC Lombardi but thrived (4.7 YPC) under OC Cooter. The fact is, if the Lions’ offense picks up where it left off—and there’s no reason at the moment to think it won’t—Abdullah will be a big part of it. Of course, when your offense is humming along, there’s room for secondary guys to make an impact. Enter Theo Riddick, who was a PPR steal last season (80 receptions). While he’ll continue to be a must-draft RB in PPR, he’s an RB4 in standard leagues, making him a decent flex option most weeks in standard leagues.
Golden Tate (WR-24 ADP) is my 15th ranked wideout. He absolutely blew up when Calvin was sidelined two years ago and is a prime candidate for 100+ catches, 1,200+ yards, and 7+ TDs as Stafford’s #1 target. On the other side of the field, Marvin Jones was one of my sleepers last preseason, and while good, he wasn’t great. Expect slightly better numbers than we saw in 2015, but at his current ADP (WR-38 vs. FF4W WR-45), he’s slightly overvalued. In the battle for the #3 wide receiver position, forget Jeremy Kerley and Andre Caldwell: I’m all in on T.J. Jones. While it doesn’t mean I’m drafting him (he’s the #70 WR on my board), he has great dynasty appeal and will become relevant if Tate or Jones get hurt.
Finally, Eric Ebron should build off his solid sophomore campaign. He’s my 17th ranked TE, and his arrow’s pointing up. If he has a strong August, I’ll likely recommend him as a back-end TE1.
In a word, this has the makings of an unexpectedly explosive offense. Most players can be had on the cheap. Overlook the Lions’ offense at your own fantasy peril.