"If he's hot, he's staying in there. But there's no script right now." That's what Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians said about David Johnson yesterday. It's a quote that could send shock waves throughout the fantasy universe.
But before knocking him down our draft boards, we need to figure out what's behind it. First, it's July. We're a long way from Week 1. Second, Johnson looked terrific last season when given starter's carries--and better than Chris Johnson looked. Third, Chris is turning 31 in September; David is a franchise-caliber RB not yet in the prime of his playing abilities. Fourth, coaches sometimes say things to motivate their players--particularly young guys who aren't accustomed to the NFL's mental and physical grind. This might simply be Arians' way of keeping a fire lit behind David.
Fantasy managers stumble when they treat all news with the same degree of significance. All Arians' statement means is that I'll pay a little more attention to David's work ethic and production this preseason.
Turning now to today's bold predictions: a largely forgotten WR4/5 and an overdrafted, aged RB:
(9) Robert Woods (WR-85 ADP) will be a top 50 WR. Woods is egregiously undervalued after a letdown 552/3 season. Beyond these pedestrian numbers is the fact that he missed two games and apparently played with a torn groin for about half the year. True, the Bills won’t have a high-volume passing attack; Buffalo will reach the playoffs primarily if their running game and defense step up. But Sammy Watkins’ foot ailment could push Woods to the top of the depth chart in Week 1, and at minimum puts him on the WR2/3 map anytime Watkins is sidelined. I want Woods on my roster in deep leagues, and he’s a player to watch on waivers in shallower leagues.
(10) Justin Forsett (RB-32 ADP) will not be a top 45 RB. Last preseason, Forsett was ranked as a low-end RB1 / high-end RB2 by most of the fantasy world. Turning 31 in October, the diminutive journeyman is among fantasy’s most overrated running backs. Those who believe Forsett will lead this backfield—and that includes most experts—see a career 4.9 YPC and a stronger, healthier Baltimore offense that will increase his scoring output. I see a guy who’s had more than 118 carries in only two of eight seasons, one of which was cut short by a season-ending injury in Week 11. Second-year pro Buck Allen could win the starting job outright this preseason, and even if he doesn’t, Allen should earn meaningful touches per game out of the gate. And rookie Kenneth Dixon—out about a week with a Grade 1 MCL sprain—probably is the most talented of the group, and is my bet to be next season’s Ravens starter. So when it comes to Forsett, let someone else get stuck with a guy whose role will decline as the season progresses.
But before knocking him down our draft boards, we need to figure out what's behind it. First, it's July. We're a long way from Week 1. Second, Johnson looked terrific last season when given starter's carries--and better than Chris Johnson looked. Third, Chris is turning 31 in September; David is a franchise-caliber RB not yet in the prime of his playing abilities. Fourth, coaches sometimes say things to motivate their players--particularly young guys who aren't accustomed to the NFL's mental and physical grind. This might simply be Arians' way of keeping a fire lit behind David.
Fantasy managers stumble when they treat all news with the same degree of significance. All Arians' statement means is that I'll pay a little more attention to David's work ethic and production this preseason.
Turning now to today's bold predictions: a largely forgotten WR4/5 and an overdrafted, aged RB:
(9) Robert Woods (WR-85 ADP) will be a top 50 WR. Woods is egregiously undervalued after a letdown 552/3 season. Beyond these pedestrian numbers is the fact that he missed two games and apparently played with a torn groin for about half the year. True, the Bills won’t have a high-volume passing attack; Buffalo will reach the playoffs primarily if their running game and defense step up. But Sammy Watkins’ foot ailment could push Woods to the top of the depth chart in Week 1, and at minimum puts him on the WR2/3 map anytime Watkins is sidelined. I want Woods on my roster in deep leagues, and he’s a player to watch on waivers in shallower leagues.
(10) Justin Forsett (RB-32 ADP) will not be a top 45 RB. Last preseason, Forsett was ranked as a low-end RB1 / high-end RB2 by most of the fantasy world. Turning 31 in October, the diminutive journeyman is among fantasy’s most overrated running backs. Those who believe Forsett will lead this backfield—and that includes most experts—see a career 4.9 YPC and a stronger, healthier Baltimore offense that will increase his scoring output. I see a guy who’s had more than 118 carries in only two of eight seasons, one of which was cut short by a season-ending injury in Week 11. Second-year pro Buck Allen could win the starting job outright this preseason, and even if he doesn’t, Allen should earn meaningful touches per game out of the gate. And rookie Kenneth Dixon—out about a week with a Grade 1 MCL sprain—probably is the most talented of the group, and is my bet to be next season’s Ravens starter. So when it comes to Forsett, let someone else get stuck with a guy whose role will decline as the season progresses.