When a team has a bellcow RB heading into the season, depending on some obvious variables (injury risk, scoring potential, wear-and-tear, etc.), we can draft him with some level of confidence that he'll remain the bellcow. When two RBs are competing, more research and analysis are needed.
And when three RBs are expected to play a role, one is often overrated and another is often underrated.
This year's Jets have a very talented, balanced backfield. My #11 and 12 bold predictions highlight how poorly two of them have been evaluated by the fantasy universe:
(11) Bilal Powell (RB-59 ADP) will be a top 40 RB. One of the biggest value picks at running back, Powell will be a weekly RB4 even with a healthy Matt Forte and Khiry Robinson on the field. And with the 30-year-old Forte slowing down (4.0 YPC in his last two season), Powell should earn 10-14 touches per game. The Jets’ recent signing of Ryan Fitzpatrick certainly help, as a Geno Smith-led offense would have hampered Powell’s production. Powell is going off the board in the 11th-13th rounds of most drafts. Grab him a round or two early and feel good about a pick well spent.
(12) Matt Forte (RB-14 ADP) will not be a top 25 RB. You probably could see this coming. Forte’s average draft position is based largely on his track record, not on legitimate expectations. The Jets’ RB corps has the makings of a three-headed backfield where any guy—Forte, Powell, or Robinson—could step up any week. Robinson has the biggest uphill climb, but Forte has the furthest to fall. Aged RBs who lead three-man backfields can’t be counted on to post big numbers. Let an opponent select Forte way too early; his best years are unquestionably behind him.
And when three RBs are expected to play a role, one is often overrated and another is often underrated.
This year's Jets have a very talented, balanced backfield. My #11 and 12 bold predictions highlight how poorly two of them have been evaluated by the fantasy universe:
(11) Bilal Powell (RB-59 ADP) will be a top 40 RB. One of the biggest value picks at running back, Powell will be a weekly RB4 even with a healthy Matt Forte and Khiry Robinson on the field. And with the 30-year-old Forte slowing down (4.0 YPC in his last two season), Powell should earn 10-14 touches per game. The Jets’ recent signing of Ryan Fitzpatrick certainly help, as a Geno Smith-led offense would have hampered Powell’s production. Powell is going off the board in the 11th-13th rounds of most drafts. Grab him a round or two early and feel good about a pick well spent.
(12) Matt Forte (RB-14 ADP) will not be a top 25 RB. You probably could see this coming. Forte’s average draft position is based largely on his track record, not on legitimate expectations. The Jets’ RB corps has the makings of a three-headed backfield where any guy—Forte, Powell, or Robinson—could step up any week. Robinson has the biggest uphill climb, but Forte has the furthest to fall. Aged RBs who lead three-man backfields can’t be counted on to post big numbers. Let an opponent select Forte way too early; his best years are unquestionably behind him.