I wrote Fantasy Football for Winners and started this blog four years ago after spending years being too trusting of experts' predictions and “average draft positions.” There’s a better way to draft and manage a fantasy football team than simply clicking on an expert website and accepting their conclusions verbatim.
That goes for FF4W, too. When I share predictions, rankings, etc., the intention is not to convince you I'm right. Most of my predictions run counter to conventional wisdom. So my primary motivation is to challenge us to think differently. If our research and analysis lead us back to conventional wisdom, well, then at least we're being deliberate about it. But when we discover certain players are over- or undervalued, that's often the difference between winning and losing.
I’ll share two predictions at a time between today and late August, interspersed with commentary about topical issues/strategies. There might be a few tweaks on the “bold” list before Week 1--for example, if one of these guys gets hurt during a preseason game. But on the whole, these are the guys I'm going with.
(1) DeAndre Hopkins (WR-4 ADP) won’t be a top 12 WR – Among 80 experts compiled by Fantasy Pros, Hopkins’ average WR ranking is 4th, and no one lists him worse than 7th. So this prediction is a complete outlier. The seemingly invincible Hopkins can’t be expected to replicate last year’s stats with Lamar Miller dominating in the backfield and Brock Osweiler game-managing his way through the season. Pass on the universally embraced first-round draft pick. Sure, he’ll rack up some 100-yard, 1-TD performances. But he’ll also earn enough 6-60 outputs to remove him from the WR1 picture.
(2) Kelvin Benjamin (WR-18 ADP) will be a top 12 WR – Only two of 80 experts compiled by Fantasy Pros rank Benjamin better than 14th (both place him at #11); most rank him in the 20s. Last season, his 2014 line (1,008 yards, nine TDs) would have ranked him 17th among WRs. Thinking he won’t build on his rookie numbers is simply shortsighted. Benjamin is a steal as his overall 45 ADP—a terrific third-round pick for WR1 pro
That goes for FF4W, too. When I share predictions, rankings, etc., the intention is not to convince you I'm right. Most of my predictions run counter to conventional wisdom. So my primary motivation is to challenge us to think differently. If our research and analysis lead us back to conventional wisdom, well, then at least we're being deliberate about it. But when we discover certain players are over- or undervalued, that's often the difference between winning and losing.
I’ll share two predictions at a time between today and late August, interspersed with commentary about topical issues/strategies. There might be a few tweaks on the “bold” list before Week 1--for example, if one of these guys gets hurt during a preseason game. But on the whole, these are the guys I'm going with.
(1) DeAndre Hopkins (WR-4 ADP) won’t be a top 12 WR – Among 80 experts compiled by Fantasy Pros, Hopkins’ average WR ranking is 4th, and no one lists him worse than 7th. So this prediction is a complete outlier. The seemingly invincible Hopkins can’t be expected to replicate last year’s stats with Lamar Miller dominating in the backfield and Brock Osweiler game-managing his way through the season. Pass on the universally embraced first-round draft pick. Sure, he’ll rack up some 100-yard, 1-TD performances. But he’ll also earn enough 6-60 outputs to remove him from the WR1 picture.
(2) Kelvin Benjamin (WR-18 ADP) will be a top 12 WR – Only two of 80 experts compiled by Fantasy Pros rank Benjamin better than 14th (both place him at #11); most rank him in the 20s. Last season, his 2014 line (1,008 yards, nine TDs) would have ranked him 17th among WRs. Thinking he won’t build on his rookie numbers is simply shortsighted. Benjamin is a steal as his overall 45 ADP—a terrific third-round pick for WR1 pro