Five Biggest Questions
2. If Geno Smith starts Week 1, is he a 2-QB-league option?
3. Is Matt Forte an RB2?
4. Is Eric Decker a WR1/2?
5. Is any receiver not named Marshall or Decker fantasy relevant?
The Jets were the first team I discussed last preseason, so it’s fitting that they end this preseason’s segment. Last summer, Geno Smith was the team’s #1 QB, which led me to drop Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker far below their ADPs. Then teammate IK Enemkpali broke Smith’s jaw (of course he did), and in stepped savior Ryan Fitzpatrick, who ended the preseason with a misguided QB-32 ADP, but whose FF4W “bold” prediction promised top 20 QB production. He went on to rack up the year’s 11th most fantasy QB points. During this offseason, Jets management have acted like morons by refusing to pay him. Fitz is as good as what we saw in 2015 with Marshall and Decker in tow. If he gets signed, expect a top 16 QB season with top 10-12 upside if Matt Forte’s pass-catching skills are on display. If the Jets abandon all sense of hope and reason, then Geno Smith will be a bottom-8 QB, causing a ripple effect throughout the offense.
That ripple effect will be felt most with Marshall and Decker, whose present FF4W WR rankings (20 and 34, respectively) reflect the assumption that Fitz will be starting Week 1. But every week that passes in August will send these WRs’ stock dropping—minimally at first, and then precipitously if Geno is still calling plays by the third week in August. Regardless, Decker’s ADP (WR-25) is too hopeful. He won’t have another 12-TD season. Not even close. For now, don’t draft him before the sixth round in 12-team leagues, and as mentioned, his stock will plummet if Geno’s throwing to him. The only other WR worth mentioning is Quincy Enunwa, though I’m not expecting more than 400 yards and two TDs from the rarely targeted third-year pro.
The backfield is fairly stacked, which is good for Jets fans and troubling for fantasy footballers. While Matt Forte’s best years are unequivocally behind him, the Jets signed him because he can still be a significant contributor. I’m expecting around 1,000 total yards and 4-5 scores with Fitz at the helm, and a slight dip otherwise. His current RB-14 ADP should be roundly ignored. He’ll be a top 25-30 RB with Fitz and a top 32-37 RB without him. Coming in at #38 on my RB rankings, Bilal Powell will take a step forward this season. His 2015 numbers (701 total yards and three TDs) could increase to rival Forte’s. His RB-61 ADP makes him an unabashed steal. TD-dependent Khiry Robinson brings up the rear of this three-headed ground attack; I’m avoiding him in most leagues on draft day, but he’s one Forte or Powell injury away from relevance.
If you’re drafting TE Jace Amaro, you’re either friends with him, or you play in a 24-team league. If the former, I hope he appreciates what you did for him. If the latter, I still wouldn’t start him.
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Obviously, this is the final 32-in-32 post. Tomorrow we'll kick off the next phase of the preseason: the annual FF4W "Bold Predictions," which will mix in with various observations over the next five weeks.
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