Five Biggest Questions
2. Will Dion Lewis pick up where he left off before last year’s ACL injury?
3. Is LeGarrette Blount an RB2/3?
4. Will Danny Amendola get closer to realizing his potential?
5. Is Martellus Bennett a likely TE1?
In a story seemingly as old as time, the Patriots once again field one of the NFL’s most dominant teams. And despite enduring a four-game suspension after what must be sports history’s longest gap between alleged crime and administered punishment, 38-year-old Tom Brady remains the face of this franchise and the gold standard for proving doubters wrong. Last summer I was one of those doubters, daring to question his ability to dominate at an age when most NFL players are long since retired. My 2015 Brady prediction was painfully bad. My 2016 prediction might be just as bad, but the beauty of July is that no one knows for sure. Last year Brady beat up on four of the league’s five worst past defenses: the Eagles (28th), Jaguars (29th), Steelers (30th), and Giants (32nd). Another six games featured the Bills (19th), Dolphins (21st), Colts (24th), and Redskins (25th).
While it’s generally considered blasphemy to question Brady’s ability to dominate any opponent, his 2016 schedule (starting when he returns Week 5) is relatively brutal. After two successive years of improved per-game production, Tom Terrific will revert to somewhere between his 2013 and 2014 numbers, averaging about 240 to 260 yards and 1.8 to 2 TDs per contest. There’s nothing wrong with that. 2015 was one of his greatest seasons statistically. Given the factors I’ve laid out, maintaining that level in 2016 is unlikely. He’ll be a near-every-week starter, minus the aura of invincibility. Meanwhile, Jimmy Garoppolo will lead the Pats in weeks 1-4. It’s been a long time since we’ve seen a New England QB flounder; even Matt Cassel was (in hindsight) surprisingly adequate when he needed to step up. I have no doubt Bill Belichick & company are preparing Garoppolo for whatever success he can muster. He has QB1 potential in Week 2 against the Dolphins; otherwise, expect top 20-26 QB numbers versus the Cardinals, Texans, and Bills.
Predicting a Belichick-led backfield is like playing the lottery. Here’s what we know: Dion Lewis was pulled from obscurity last year (hadn’t seen game action since 2012) and became a fantasy star before tearing his ACL. Perhaps due to health concerns, his RB ADP (23) is not good enough. Lewis is my 13th ranked fantasy RB. No other Patriot running back will come close to matching his weekly production. Another former reclamation project, LeGarrette Blount took a step back last season before getting hurt. He’s missed all of this year’s spring practices and will play catchup in August. He’s moderately overrated (RB-42 ADP vs. RB-49 FF4W); as of today, I’m avoiding him in 14-team drafts. For New England’s sake, Brandon Bolden’s role needs to be minimal (3.3 YPC over the past two seasons); James White is worse than a dart throw; and Donald Brown should be irrelevant.
The receiver situation is a bit murky because Julian Edelman is recovering from foot surgery and Danny Amendola is an injury waiting to happen. Edelman is my 25th ranked WR (vs. WR-19 ADP), while Amendola comes in at #58 (vs. WR-64 ADP). The biggest receiver bargain on this squad, however is Chris Hogan (WR-68 ADP vs. WR-57 FF4W); the former Bill has top 40 upside if Amendola disappoints or is sidelined. I like Hogan as a flier in very deep leagues. Among other semi-notable names, Nate Washington and Aaron Dobson are waiver fodder.
Once again, Rob Gronkowski is fantasy’s unquestioned #1 TE. After back-to-back comparable seasons with minimal health concerns, he no longer has the large red flags that have caused some (me included) to draft him cautiously. And to those wondering whether Martellus Bennett will eat into Gronk’s upside, don’t worry: Gronk will get his 1,000+ yards and 9+ TDs. My 19th ranked TE, Bennett is merely a spot-starter with massive potential if Gronk gets hurt.