Five Biggest Questions
2. Is Jay Ajayi an RB2?
3. Could Arian Foster lead Miami RBs in yards from scrimmage?
4. Is DeVante Parker a weekly fantasy starter?
5. Will Jordan Cameron rebound after a disappointing 2015?
Life’s too short to state the obvious and act predictably. Year after year after year, among highly recognizable fantasy experts like ESPN, CBS Sports, and Yahoo! Sports, half of their preseason top 10 positional rankings are not top 10 positional performers—and several aren’t even close. And week after week after week, half of their top 10 positional rankings don’t produce as expected—and several aren’t even close. That’s why I enjoy making bold predictions; they’re not bold for the sake of boldness, but instead are attempts to pinpoint the very undervalued and the very overvalued, because that’s often how championships are won.
And so I’m predicting that Ryan Tannehill will be a 2016 top 10 fantasy QB. His QB-22 ADP is plain dumb. Among the 80 experts compiled by Fantasy Pros, only Draft Sharks’ Kevin English ranks him better than I do (8th vs. 9th). Don’t pass on new Head Coach Adam Gase’s #1 offseason project. Tannehill has never missed a game in four NFL seasons, has steadily increased his passing yardage each year, and set a career high in yards per attempt (7.2) in 2015. The point is, while most are judging Tannehill based on last year’s stats, keep in mind we haven’t seen the best of him. We will this year: 4,700+ yards and 34+ TDs.
Jay Ajayi (RB-24 FF4W) was a trendy RB1 in some circles—at least until Miami’s recent signing of Arian Foster (RB-44 FF4W). Don’t overpay for either guy. Ajayi offers modest risk and sizable reward, with the understanding that Foster is more likely to miss time this season than remain healthy. Unfortunately, Miami’s fantasy playoff schedule is one of the league’s toughest (Cardinals, @ Jets, @ Bills). While I believe Tannehill and his receivers can be at least adequate during weeks 14-16, the RBs are bound to struggle, and therefore will be among my leading sell-high guys by midseason. Meanwhile, if rookie Kenyan Drake can overcome his injury-prone label, he could play a small role this season. But for now he’s essentially undraftable in even the deepest leagues.
Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker are my #22 and #23 WRs, respectively. Landry is priced in line with his ADP; Parker is a bargain compared to his (WR-32 ADP). Landry should be available in the 4th round in 12-team leagues, Parker in the 6th, and Tannehill in the 11th. Strongly consider these options on draft day. Miami’s #3 WR job will go to rookie Leonte Carroo or the underappreciated Kenny Stills. One of these guys will be targetable as a bye-week fill-in and as starter material if Landry or Parker gets hurt. But neither is on the dynasty radar as long as Landry and Parker are around.
Finally, I warned against the overrated Jordan Cameron last preseason, when his TE ADP was an unbelievable 9th. This year, his TE-19 ADP is about right. I’m ignoring him entirely on draft day.