While I'm very high on both QBs today, I'm starting Philip Rivers over Big Ben in my semifinal matchup. Might be a huge mistake, but it kicks off this round of very underrated positional players.
Rivers was the #2 fantasy scoring QB until Keenan Allen was lost for the year. Stevie Johnson's injury didn't help. And now he's dealing with three less-than-100% receivers: Antonio Gates, Malcom Floyd, and Ladarius Green. To the naked eye, his consensus #14 QB Week 15 ranking is generous. But there's more to this story.
The Chargers are last in the league in rushing TDs (only two). When they score, 92% of the time it's through the air. It means that, say, at 2nd and goal at the 5, Rivers is probably more likely to pass than nearly every other QB. That's exactly what his fantasy owners want.
Another perceived problem with Rivers is that he'll been awful recently from a fantasy perspective, with zero TDs in three of his past four games. But those three games came against the Chiefs (twice) and Broncos--two of the league's three best Ds. A home tilt vs. a bottom-8 Dolphins defense presents an entirely different opportunity.
I'm eyeing 3+ TDs for Rivers today, and that's why I'm starting him over the 2+ TD Roethlisberger.
Looking at other positions, at RB, Danny Woodhead (ranked 35th) is worth a flier, especially in PPR leagues, if you don't have an 8+ point option. His upside is tremendous. Under-utilization is a risk, but I like his chances of posting top 20 numbers. And Cameron Artis-Payne (ranked 50th) is expected to start for Carolina. Clearly he could wrap up the day with only five carries for 12 yards; we don't know enough about his potential yet. But as a desperation start? Yes. I'm betting on him posting top 30 numbers.
They're not exactly underrated, but I believe this week's top two fantasy WRs will be Julio Jones (ranked 1st, so big whoop I suppose) and more importantly, Amari Cooper (ranked a mind-blowing 25th). Cooper's recent struggles shouldn't impact fantasy managers' decisions on whether to start him. He's still the same player: age, injury, offensive scheme, and depth chart shifts (the four main determinants of a player's shifting value) haven't changed since he looked dominant earlier this year. I'm projecting 100+ yards and two scores.
At tight end, I like Ryan Griffin, Clive Walford, and Luke Wilson as deep starts. They're ranked 22nd, 23rd, and 25th respectively this week. Griffin earned six targets last week, and while catching only one, he has 7+ point potential without the need to score. Walford had seven targets last week and possesses more scoring potential. And Wilson is a typical boom-bust TE with a very low floor--a guy you start when you're willing to risk getting one point for the chance at 12+.
I should be around all morning to answer questions. Good luck today.
Rivers was the #2 fantasy scoring QB until Keenan Allen was lost for the year. Stevie Johnson's injury didn't help. And now he's dealing with three less-than-100% receivers: Antonio Gates, Malcom Floyd, and Ladarius Green. To the naked eye, his consensus #14 QB Week 15 ranking is generous. But there's more to this story.
The Chargers are last in the league in rushing TDs (only two). When they score, 92% of the time it's through the air. It means that, say, at 2nd and goal at the 5, Rivers is probably more likely to pass than nearly every other QB. That's exactly what his fantasy owners want.
Another perceived problem with Rivers is that he'll been awful recently from a fantasy perspective, with zero TDs in three of his past four games. But those three games came against the Chiefs (twice) and Broncos--two of the league's three best Ds. A home tilt vs. a bottom-8 Dolphins defense presents an entirely different opportunity.
I'm eyeing 3+ TDs for Rivers today, and that's why I'm starting him over the 2+ TD Roethlisberger.
Looking at other positions, at RB, Danny Woodhead (ranked 35th) is worth a flier, especially in PPR leagues, if you don't have an 8+ point option. His upside is tremendous. Under-utilization is a risk, but I like his chances of posting top 20 numbers. And Cameron Artis-Payne (ranked 50th) is expected to start for Carolina. Clearly he could wrap up the day with only five carries for 12 yards; we don't know enough about his potential yet. But as a desperation start? Yes. I'm betting on him posting top 30 numbers.
They're not exactly underrated, but I believe this week's top two fantasy WRs will be Julio Jones (ranked 1st, so big whoop I suppose) and more importantly, Amari Cooper (ranked a mind-blowing 25th). Cooper's recent struggles shouldn't impact fantasy managers' decisions on whether to start him. He's still the same player: age, injury, offensive scheme, and depth chart shifts (the four main determinants of a player's shifting value) haven't changed since he looked dominant earlier this year. I'm projecting 100+ yards and two scores.
At tight end, I like Ryan Griffin, Clive Walford, and Luke Wilson as deep starts. They're ranked 22nd, 23rd, and 25th respectively this week. Griffin earned six targets last week, and while catching only one, he has 7+ point potential without the need to score. Walford had seven targets last week and possesses more scoring potential. And Wilson is a typical boom-bust TE with a very low floor--a guy you start when you're willing to risk getting one point for the chance at 12+.
I should be around all morning to answer questions. Good luck today.