On to the NFC North:
Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Jay Cutler worth drafting in 1-QB leagues?
2. Jeremy Langford vs. Jordan Howard: Who will lead the backfield?
3. Will a healthy Alshon Jeffery be a WR1?
4. Will Kevin White make good on his 2015 preseason buzz?
5. Will 2015 TE fill-in Zach Miller be a viable fantasy contributor?
Last summer I discussed why Jay Cutler isn’t as good as his supporters assert and isn’t as bad as his detractors insist:
https://www.facebook.com/FantasyFootballForWinners/posts/872072789507368
He’s a prototypical high-middling QB whose physical capabilities are justifiably celebrated and whose mental toughness is justifiably critiqued. He’s never thrown for 4,000+ yards as a Bear and never thrown 30+ TD passes in his career—and even if he’d played all 16 games each season, these plateaus might not have been reached. Keep in mind some of these seasons he was throwing to Brandon Marshall, Matt Forte, and Martellus Bennett in their primes (not to mention an up-and-coming Alshon Jeffery). College standout WR Kevin White is healthy. But the loss of pass-catching phenom Forte and a downgrade at TE (Bennett’s departure) makes Cutler an even less attractive fantasy option than he was this time last year.
It’s too early to know who, if anyone, will lead Chicago’s backfield Week 1. Yet there’s one thing we do know: Jeremy Langford was one of 2015’s most overrated RBs. Seven TDs on 170 touches? Impressive, but likely not sustainable. 3.6 YPC? Concerning. To be an impactful fantasy RB, he must be more efficient. No one knows how rookie Jordan Howard will respond when the pads go on. What we do know is that he’s expected to play a meaningful role in this offense.
If you’re drafting soon, here’s all you need to know: Langford’s RB ADP (22, and 64 overall) is perilously optimistic, while Howard’s RB ADP (57, and 138 overall) leaves him abysmally underrated. Take a flier on Howard in the 10th or 11th round; there’s a decent chance he’ll be worth considerably more than that by September. When it comes to drafting late-round guys, high-upside players like Howard can be the key to winning.
Raise your hand if you got burned by Alshon Jeffery last season. (Note that I’ve raised both of my hands.) With Brandon Marshall out of Chicago and Kevin White knocked out for the year, Jeffery was supposed to be an elite WR. Injuries throughout the season made him one of the most frustrating talented guys to own. But consider this: Stretching out his nine-game season to 16, he was on pace for 96 catches for 1,435 yards and seven TDs. That would have placed him comfortably inside the top 10 among WRs, which is exactly where he’ll be this season.
A shin stress fracture delayed Kevin White’s NFL debut for a year. We’ll soon learn whether it was worth the wait. I’m a tentative believer, but want to see him in game action before making a final preseason judgment. As for Eddie Royal, injuries limited him to nine games in 2015. With everyone healthy this year, I don’t see Royal as anything more than Chicago’s fifth option. He’s a final-round flier who’s more likely than not to be droppable in September—unless Jeffery or White get hurt. Same goes for Josh Bellamy. As for Marquess Wilson, what might have been. . . . He re-broke his foot in June, so we’ll probably never witness his potential as a Bear.
Finally, there’s TE Zach Miller, who didn’t play an offensive snap in the NFL for three seasons, and then posted TE1 numbers the second half of last year. He’ll enter this season as his team’s #1 tight end, though I’d caution folks not to over-bid: Competing with Marc Mariani for targets in 2015 is not a predictor of future success.