Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Jameis Winston take another step forward in his NFL development?
2. Will Doug Martin remain an elite RB?
3. Can Mike Evans overcome an underachieving sophomore season?
4. Will Kenny Bell prevail in a three-way slot receiver battle?
5. Can Austin Seferian-Jenkins be an every-week fantasy starter?
Who was the 14th highest scoring fantasy QB last season? That’s right: Jameis Winston. Granted, guys like Ben Roethlisberger, Andrew Luck, and Andy Dalton were on pace to score more points if they hadn’t been sidelined. But the point is clear: Given how often two of his top three receivers were hurt, and given his #1 receiver’s surprisingly erratic play, Winston fared far better than any self-respecting fantasy expert (including me) could have predicted. Because his receivers’ health and effectiveness should improve this season, Winston is a prime sleeper candidate at his current QB-16 and overall-118 ADP. I’ve got him at 13/92, and his arrow is pointing upward.
Doug Martin was last preseason’s consensus 34th ranked RB based on average draft position. Last July 8th I wrote on this site that he was shamefully underrated: “Martin could reach 300 touches and is more likely than not to shock many people.” He was my 15th ranked RB; even I underestimated him. Fast-forward one year, and I’d be shocked if he’s a top 6 RB in 2016. With effective pass-catcher Charles Sims sure to play a significant role once again (he had 158 touches last season, which is an incredible number given Martin’s heavy workload), and with Winston and his receivers bound to take another step forward, expect Martin to regress. He’s my 8th ranked RB and could fall a little below 10 by August.
Mike Evans is only 22 years old. Think about that. Most 22-year-olds haven’t even begun their professional careers, and Evans has 2,257 receiving yards and 15 TDs in what could be a 15-year, Hall-of-Fame career. Too soon? After this season, the hype surrounding Evans will grow. Among last year’s top 49 fantasy wideouts, 47 reeled in more than 50% of their targets. Evans didn’t, thanks in part to an NFC-high 15 drops. If you believe as I do that his pass-catching troubles were an anomaly, those stats can be thrown out the window. Evans is my #7 fantasy WR this preseason in what should be a huge bounce-back year.
Although I might be too high on veteran Vincent Jackson (#36 WR vs. consensus #49 WR), his injury-plagued 2015 season shouldn’t count against him. Last year marked the first time he hasn’t played in all 16 games since 2010. 800+ yards and 5+ TDs are realistic. The #3 WR role likely will come down to Kenny Bell, Russell Shepard, or Louis Murphy. Bell’s rookie season ended before it began due to a hamstring injury, while Shepard has been getting talked up by the coaching staff despite doing very little in three NFL seasons. Louis Murphy is also in the mix, despite having a minimal impact as an injury-prone slot receiver these past two years. Bell clear and away offers the best chance at fantasy relevance, so he’s a name to monitor—particularly in dynasty leagues.
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins made a lot of fantasy managers happy after his Week 1 blowup last year (110 yards and two scores). Yet a shoulder injury soon sidelined him for most of the season. What might have been. Will he get the opportunity to live up to his potential? He should, although the buzz around camp is that the serviceable Cameron Brate might wrest away starting TE duties. I’m not buying it. Signed for two more seasons, ASJ has massive upside. Tampa Bay has a legit shot of reaching 9-10 wins in 2016, and a balanced offensive attack that includes Seferian-Jenkins is a key ingredient. Possessing a 14 TE ADP, he’s one of my favorite nothing-to-lose, late-round fliers.