Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Drew Brees’ career in decline?
2. Do Mark Ingram’s durability issues make him worth a high draft pick?
3. Will C.J. Spiller finally return to fantasy relevance?
4. How will Willie Snead fare playing alongside more talented receivers?
5. Where will Coby Fleener fall along the Josh-Hill-to-Jimmy-Graham spectrum?
Last preseason I warned readers to steer clear of Drew Brees. Since reaching his statistical peak in 2011, his offensive numbers had declined in each successive year. And heading into 2015 he had just lost fantasy stud Jimmy Graham and respectable fantasy fill-in Kenny Stills. But Brees came through with the year’s fifth most points per game among QBs, along with relatively dominating performances in the fantasy playoffs. This year the Saints have made potentially significant upgrades at WR (Michael Thomas) and TE (Coby Fleener). The veteran QB’s consensus positional ADP is 6th. On my draft board, however, he’s 9th. Brees scored 25% of his fantasy points across two games (weeks 8-9). In seven of his other eight contests thru Week 12 he scored under 17 fantasy points. Turning 38 in January, Brees is a safe back-end QB1 with some upside. But I'm expecting slight regression overall.
Mark Ingram once again couldn’t stay healthy in 2015, leaving owners scrambling during the fantasy playoffs. For those keeping score, Ingram has durability issues. An elite RB when healthy, the 26-year-old is running out of time to put it all together. Fortunately for him, only 30-year-old Tim Hightower and perennial underachiever C.J. Spiller are serious threats to his bell-cow status. Despite blowing up when it mattered most last season (Week 16), Hightower is a sub-par runner whose only value lies in Ingram’s seeming fragility. And Spiller needs a terrific preseason to earn whatever crumbs (maybe 4-6 touches per game, unless he somehow returns to 2012 form) remain. Ingram’s consensus RB ADP (11th) doesn’t do him justice; grab him in the late first round, and even if he gives you only 14 games, his per-week numbers should rival that of a top 5 RB.
Little needs to be said of Brandin Cooks. Brees’ #1 target and last year’s 12th highest scoring WR is my #16 WR heading into this year. Barring injury, he’s the definition of “safe.” Not so for Willie Snead, who overtook fellow wideout Brandon Coleman early last season and never looked back. However, New Orleans will have a stronger offensive unit in 2016, forcing Snead (consensus 99 overall ADP) to compete more for looks. Based on value, I prefer rookie WR Michael Thomas (consensus 139 overall ADP)—who’s expected to replace Marques Colston in the slot—and TE Coby Fleener (consensus 91 overall ADP).
Speaking of Fleener, the Saints hope he’ll play a Jimmy Graham role. It remains to be seen whether his sporadic success in Indianapolis portends All-Pro TE numbers in New Orleans. But he’s currently slightly undervalued. As soon as Greg Olsen and Travis Kelce are off the board, I’m eyeballing Fleener in the next round.