Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Cam Newton a top 5 fantasy draft pick?
2. Is Jonathan Stewart durable enough to once again post RB1 numbers?
3. Will Kelvin Benjamin’s 2015 ACL injury impact his Week 1 readiness and overall performance?
4. Will Devin Funchess develop into an every-week fantasy contributor?
5. Can Greg Olsen build off of his career year?
Coming off his worst NFL season and losing his top receiver to a season-ending training camp injury, Cam Newton was damaged goods last year. Or so I thought. Getting the most from journeymen receivers like Ted Ginn, Jr. and Jericho Cotchery while leaning heavily on veteran TE Greg Olsen (career highs in targets and yards)—and of course due in large part to the brilliance of Cam Newton—the Panthers scored more points than any NFL team had since 2013.
So what’s in store for Cam’s ’16 campaign? More of the same . . . and likely better, which is scary given how Carolina’s franchise QB scored 10% more fantasy points (standard scoring) than the second highest scoring QB. It would be shocking if Cam weren’t a top 3 QB in 2016. In two-QB leagues he’s probably going first overall. In one-QB leagues I’d take him starting with the fifth overall pick without hesitation.
In the backfield, Jonathan Stewart is my 19th ranked RB and is 46th overall. But his arrow is tentatively pointing downward after the Charlotte Observer reported in early June that his Super Bowl foot re-injury still isn’t 100% healthy. Two tangential red flags: He’s missed at least three games in each of the past four seasons, and last year he had personal highs in carries (242, vs. his previous high of 221) and carries per game (18.6 vs. 13.8). If he’s declared 100% this preseason—and makes it through August unscathed—he might be worth the risk as a potential top 16 RB, and certainly would be a stone-cold bargain compared to his average draft position.
Handcuff Cameron Artis-Payne was acceptable as a fill-in pseudo-starter in last year’s final three weeks. But he’s my #53 RB (vs. RB-64 ADP); given Cam’s propensity to run and Mike Tolbert’s goal-line presence, Artis-Payne’s upside is capped.
Kelvin Benjamin’s ACL injury last August halted the development of one of the league’s best young receivers. While his consensus WR ADP is 18, he’s 13th on my board. He should be able to build on his 1,008-yard, nine-TD rookie numbers. Taking Cam in the mid-to-late first round and Benjamin in the mid-to-late third has the makings of a solid draft. But the bigger WR sleeper is a guy I pushed early and often on this site last year: Devin Funchess. Possessing only a WR-67 consensus ADP, he’s #46 in my rankings, making him a huge steal in the later rounds. While he’ll start the season as the fourth or fifth offensive option, Funchess has the playmaking ability to form a 1-2 punch with Benjamin.
Counterbalancing these underrated wideouts are Ted Ginn and Corey Brown—two guys whose 2015 seasons will prove to be anomalies. Ginn, in particular, is highly overrated with a WR-56 ADP (vs. 77th on my draft board). He won’t rack up 700+ yards again and won’t come close to notching 10 TDs again. Look elsewhere for fliers.
Greg Olsen also is getting a bit too much love as a consensus #3 TE (he’s sixth on my list). While as dependable as they come at the TE position, Olsen is a regression candidate after posting record-high yards and near-record-high TDs minus Benjamin and alongside an inexperienced Funchess. He simply won’t be counted on to the same degree in a far more potent offense.