Kicking things off in the NFC South:
1. Will Matt Ryan get to the next level?
2. Could Tevin Coleman reclaim the role of 1A RB to Devonta Freeman’s 1B?
3. Can Mohamed Sanu recapture the magic of 2014?
4. Is Justin Hardy worth drafting in any leagues?
5. Who will lead the TE corps?
Two preseasons ago I wrongly predicted a breakout year for Matt Ryan. A year later I wizened up. Today, he’s my 21st ranked QB with little room to improve. Impressive yardage (four straight years throwing for 4,500+) should be a given. Impressive scoring (28 TDs or less each of the past three years) should not.
Many of you know I’m a very active league trader, always looking for—and often finding—opportunities to sell high and buy low. Full disclosure: I had no clue Devonta Freeman would be anything more than a 1B running back to Tevin Coleman’s 1A. That was the word out of training camp last year, when Freeman was coming off a pedestrian rookie campaign (3.8 YPC). But in 2015, while he was breaking out in weeks 3-6 (nearly 600 total yards and nine TDs), I urged readers to sell high. This level of productivity was unsustainable. Defenses would adjust.
Sure enough (as usually happens when a player goes nuts), Freeman reverted to “pedestrian RB” starting Week 9, averaging 3.07 YPC in his last seven contests. Tevin Coleman—whose Week 2 injury opened the door for Freeman—actually ran much better during this same stretch (4.61 YPC). Many people look at a previous year’s numbers as one entity, to be evaluated against another player’s to determine who was better. That’s never the whole story.
To be clear, both of these guys are expected to contribute to Atlanta’s running game in 2016. But don’t assume Freeman will lead the way. I’m giving Freeman the edge in my preseason rankings while being very open to swapping their positions if Coleman impresses in camp.
Julio Jones merits only one sentence: a top 2 WR worth a first rounder in nearly any draft. After Julio, things get more complicated. This offense is built around a strong running game (check) and an elite WR (check). Nothing Atlanta has done these past few seasons suggests anyone else will be a meaningful fantasy contributor. Let’s start with “prized” free agent acquisition Mohamed Sanu, who due to early-season injuries in 2014 became the Bengals’ #2—and then briefly #1 when A.J. Green got hurt—wideout. As the #1 guy in weeks 6-8, he converted 18 catches in 299 yards and a score. Sounds promising, right? Well, those 18 catches came on 32 targets—a bad ratio for any team’s #1 receiver. The fact is, he led the league in dropped passes (15) that season. I’d be surprised if he posted WR6 numbers this year.
Like Sanu, Justin Hardy has trouble separating from coverage. And like Sanu, he’s currently undraftable in all but the absolute deepest leagues. That could change if he somehow leapfrogs Sanu on the depth chart and starts regularly opposite Julio Jones. But even then he’d be capped at a WR5. Devin Hester will be remotely relevant only if Sanu and Hardy flop or get hurt.
Finally, the tight end situation became a little clearer last season when the short-lived Levine Toilolo experiment came to a resounding end. In stepped reliable veteran Jacob Tamme, who’s missed only two games in the past seven seasons, and who proceeded to post the second best numbers of his career. But that output placed him 20th in TE fantasy scoring, meaning there’s plenty of room for improvement. So don’t be surprised if rookie Austin Hooper earns the starting nod and achieves fantasy relevance. With long arms, big hands, and good blocking skills, he’s a bargain-basement dynasty selection and, if he overtakes Tamme, an occasional starter in re-draft leagues.
Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Matt Ryan get to the next level?
2. Could Tevin Coleman reclaim the role of 1A RB to Devonta Freeman’s 1B?
3. Can Mohamed Sanu recapture the magic of 2014?
4. Is Justin Hardy worth drafting in any leagues?
5. Who will lead the TE corps?
Two preseasons ago I wrongly predicted a breakout year for Matt Ryan. A year later I wizened up. Today, he’s my 21st ranked QB with little room to improve. Impressive yardage (four straight years throwing for 4,500+) should be a given. Impressive scoring (28 TDs or less each of the past three years) should not.
Many of you know I’m a very active league trader, always looking for—and often finding—opportunities to sell high and buy low. Full disclosure: I had no clue Devonta Freeman would be anything more than a 1B running back to Tevin Coleman’s 1A. That was the word out of training camp last year, when Freeman was coming off a pedestrian rookie campaign (3.8 YPC). But in 2015, while he was breaking out in weeks 3-6 (nearly 600 total yards and nine TDs), I urged readers to sell high. This level of productivity was unsustainable. Defenses would adjust.
Sure enough (as usually happens when a player goes nuts), Freeman reverted to “pedestrian RB” starting Week 9, averaging 3.07 YPC in his last seven contests. Tevin Coleman—whose Week 2 injury opened the door for Freeman—actually ran much better during this same stretch (4.61 YPC). Many people look at a previous year’s numbers as one entity, to be evaluated against another player’s to determine who was better. That’s never the whole story.
To be clear, both of these guys are expected to contribute to Atlanta’s running game in 2016. But don’t assume Freeman will lead the way. I’m giving Freeman the edge in my preseason rankings while being very open to swapping their positions if Coleman impresses in camp.
Julio Jones merits only one sentence: a top 2 WR worth a first rounder in nearly any draft. After Julio, things get more complicated. This offense is built around a strong running game (check) and an elite WR (check). Nothing Atlanta has done these past few seasons suggests anyone else will be a meaningful fantasy contributor. Let’s start with “prized” free agent acquisition Mohamed Sanu, who due to early-season injuries in 2014 became the Bengals’ #2—and then briefly #1 when A.J. Green got hurt—wideout. As the #1 guy in weeks 6-8, he converted 18 catches in 299 yards and a score. Sounds promising, right? Well, those 18 catches came on 32 targets—a bad ratio for any team’s #1 receiver. The fact is, he led the league in dropped passes (15) that season. I’d be surprised if he posted WR6 numbers this year.
Like Sanu, Justin Hardy has trouble separating from coverage. And like Sanu, he’s currently undraftable in all but the absolute deepest leagues. That could change if he somehow leapfrogs Sanu on the depth chart and starts regularly opposite Julio Jones. But even then he’d be capped at a WR5. Devin Hester will be remotely relevant only if Sanu and Hardy flop or get hurt.
Finally, the tight end situation became a little clearer last season when the short-lived Levine Toilolo experiment came to a resounding end. In stepped reliable veteran Jacob Tamme, who’s missed only two games in the past seven seasons, and who proceeded to post the second best numbers of his career. But that output placed him 20th in TE fantasy scoring, meaning there’s plenty of room for improvement. So don’t be surprised if rookie Austin Hooper earns the starting nod and achieves fantasy relevance. With long arms, big hands, and good blocking skills, he’s a bargain-basement dynasty selection and, if he overtakes Tamme, an occasional starter in re-draft leagues.