Five Biggest Questions
1. Who will lead this backfield?
2. Is Doug Baldwin a WR1?
3. Will Tyler Lockett take a big developmental leap?
4. Is Jermaine Kearse draftable?
5. Will Jimmy Graham return to every-week-starter status?
It was a tale of two seasons for Russell Wilson last year. The fourth-year franchise QB scored one TD in eight of his first nine games—game manager numbers, at best. Then, starting in Week 11, he closed out the season with 25 scores and two turnovers, finishing the year with 35 TDs and 11 TOs.
Wilson’s overall numbers should improve in 2016. There’s no more Marshawn Lynch—long a top 5 RB who became a drive killer (3.8 YPC) in what he says was his final NFL season last year. The remaining backfield should be more efficient, particularly if Thomas Rawls is the bell cow. And the injured Jimmy Graham is fairly likely to be back in time for Week 1, giving Wilson a full complement of productive receivers. Wilson is a near lock to be a top 6 QB and is a great bet to finish in the top 3.
However, there are no locks in the backfield. If you’re a fan of predictability, root for Rawls to get back on the field after fracturing his ankle in mid-December; his 5.6 YPC led all qualified NFL players last season. Christine Michael was cut three times last season before closing out the year with a couple nice games for the Seahawks; he’s merely a longshot to become fantasy relevant this year. Rookie C.J. Prosise is arguably Seattle’s best passing-catching RB, but he’ll need to fix his fumbling problems to carve out, at minimum, 5-8 touches per game. Finally, rookies Alex Collins or Zac Brooks are likely bench fodder unless two of the three aforementioned RBs falter or aren’t healthy.
Among the receiving corps, Doug Baldwin became other-worldly last season around the same time as Wilson, racking up 10 TDs in a four-game stretch. His WR-21 ADP is about right: Much of his late-season outburst in 2015 came when Jimmy Graham was sidelined. Expect WR2 numbers with occasional upside. That won’t nearly be the case for Jermaine Kearse, whose strong finish to 2015 (7, 11, 10, and 10 fantasy points in weeks 14-17) was, again, more a product of Graham’s injury than Kearse’s ascension to fantasy prominence. However, Tyler Lockett should build on his rookie campaign numbers (664 receiving yards, six TDs) regardless of Graham’s status. Lockett is my #33 WR and is even more valuable in dynasty leagues.
Finally, let’s talk about Graham. Last preseason on this blog and on radio shows I challenged conventional wisdom that he was the #2 fantasy TE (https://twitter.com/bjrudell/status/625654328985034752). This preseason conventional wisdom has swung the other way, as his TE ADP (12) and overall ADP (125) are likely misguided. Granted, no one knows for sure if Graham will be on the field Week 1, and many believe Graham’s patellar tendon injury will render him a shell of his former self. But I’m banking on a sufficient-enough recovery to earn his #7 TE and #89 overall rankings on FF4W. On pace for 880 yards and three scores last season, a mostly back-to-normal Graham likely will amass 750+ yards and 6+ TDs.