Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Jared Goff be anything more than a run-of-the-mill rookie QB?
2. Will Todd Gurley expand his passing game role?
3. Is Tre Mason’s career salvageable?
4. Is Tavon Austin capable of becoming a true #1 receiver?
5. Will any non-Austin receiver be fantasy relevant?
Jared Goff is my 32nd ranked fantasy QB this preseason. This past draft’s #1 overall pick is entering his rookie year as a game manager, pure and simple. The Rams have an elite RB in Toddy Gurley and a terrific defense. For Goff, this year is all about minimizing mistakes (turnovers, sacks) and learning the ropes, so that by Year 3 he might be ready to co-lead this team (with the aforementioned Gurley).
Speaking of Gurley, some question whether he’ll be healthy for a full season (fair concern). Others allude to the latter half of his rookie year, when his efficiency dipped sharply (3.93 YPC after Week 8). Still others (or maybe they’re the same people) remark that he’s not proficient enough in the passing game (21 catches among 250 touches) to be a dominant running back.
This is all true, but I believe it misses the point. Last year only four RBs had 300+ touches. Gurley is primed to not only join this group, but lead it. The Rams’ offensive will run through him. Most goal-line possessions will begin and/or end with him. 1,500+ yards from scrimmage and 10+ TDs should be assumed. That’s why he’s currently my #2 fantasy RB.
It helps that he doesn’t have a competent backup RB. While Benny Cunningham cut into Gurley’s third-down role in 2015, I think the Gurley will get all he can handle this season. Only Tre Mason—one of the top rushers in the latter half of the 2014 season—possesses the talent to complement Gurley as part of a 30-70 split. But Mason was miserable last year when it mattered most (weeks 1 and 2), and things never improved. His arrest this offseason is yet another warning sign of what’s likely to come: a bit part in a run-heavy offense dominated by Gurley at best, unemployment at worst.
Shifting to receiver, in the early stages of Tavon Austin’s breakout last season (300+ yards and five TDs in four games starting Week 4), I kept telling readers, “Don’t believe the hype.” Although he went on to hit plenty of bumps that included many more bad games than good ones, his Week 15 outburst (19 standard-scoring points) catapulted savvy fantasy owners to the championship game. I was clearly too slow to catch on. A non-traditionally sized #1 receiver (only 5’8” / 176), Austin became what the Vikings thought Cordarrelle Patterson would become the past few years: a playmaker.
Austin is my #37 WR, but only because there’s so little competition among L.A.’s receivers. Kenny Britt is a WR5/6 with a little upside (I’d grab him in deeper leagues in case Austin falters). Brian Quick is a sneaky play because of high-WR3 upside (look at his 2014 production before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury). And no one in the Rams’ TE corps is likely to outplay the team’s former perennial underperformer Jared Cook.
This preseason, watch for whether Austin thrives as Goff’s #1 receiving option. If he does, he’ll be the only Rams receiver worth drafting in most leagues. If he doesn’t, and you’re in a relatively deep league, I’d grab Quick with my last pick and see if he recaptures the magic of 2014.