And so it begins: 32 teams in 32 days. It's still only June. A fair amount can change between now and Week 1. But combining sound speculation with hard facts, we can draw a lot of conclusions heading into the preseason.
We'll begin with the NFC West.
1. How will Carson Palmer fare coming off his best NFL season?
2. Will David Johnson be the team’s bell cow running back?
3. Will Chris Johnson garner enough touches to be fantasy relevant?
4. Was Larry Fitzgerald’s bounce-back 2015 season a fluke?
5. Will Michael Floyd become Palmer’s #1 target?
Carson Palmer—my irrelevant vote for 2014 MVP, when his injury transformed a Super Bowl-caliber team into the most inept playoff offense in a decade or more—is coming off his best year in 12 NFL seasons. Last year’s fifth-highest-scoring QB has all of his weapons back. Aside from a potentially brutal Week 16 (most people’s fantasy title games) matchup in Seattle, Palmer’s biggest downsides are the perennial “age” and “injury risk” issues. He had zero 3+ TD games after Week 11, but for now we can assume that pedestrian close-out was an anomaly. Although likely to regress a bit this year, he’s a good bet for top 10 QB production.
The running back situation is a bit muddled at the moment. On June 9, FOX Sports 910 Phoenix’s Mike Jurecki predicts a 60-30-10 split among David Johnson, Chris Johnson, and Andre Ellington, respectively. Around the same time, the Cardinals’ website pronounced that David was “expected to get the lion’s share of the work.” Meanwhile, ESPN Cardinals reporter Josh Weinfuss believes Chris Johnson will assume #1 RB duties. So yes, this is confusing as hell.
My take is that the soon-to-be 31-year-old CJ1K is on his last leg as a fantasy-relevant option. David is the future, and the future began Week 13 last season when the 23-/24-year-old helped propel savvy fantasy owners to a title. David is a better pass-catcher and netted a higher YPC (4.6) than CJ1K has seen since 2009.
What about Ellington? A seeming sixth round steal in the 2013 NFL draft, Andre has missed 10 games the past two seasons. He’s a free agent next season. Although an electrifying runner, Ellington needs a perfect storm to earn a meaningful weekly role. I like him as a Round 14 flier, because storms occasionally hit. But I wouldn’t be surprised if this were the last time I write about him all year.
At wide receiver, just when it looked like Larry Fitzgerald’s best days were behind him, he pulls an Antonio Gates, circa 2014, and ties for 10th most WR fantasy points last season. Is this a sign of things to come? No. Last year he was fifth in receptions—a career high—and 12th in targets but 90th in yards per reception—a career-low 11.1 average. Turning 33 in August, Fitz will not be leaned on as heavily with the continued development of Arizona’s other receivers. He’s my 29th ranked WR, a few slots behind Michael Floyd, who will be playing for a huge payday in the final year of his rookie contract. Floyd possesses the tools to be Palmer’s #1 target and a perennial top 20 WR; 1,000+ yards and 8+ scores should be expected. And of course, don’t forget about the undersized John Brown—a solid WR3 in most leagues whose big-play ability makes him a breakout candidate every week.
For dynasty leaguers—or if one of the Arizona’s starting receivers gets hurt—keep J.J. Nelson on your radar. Built in the John Brown mold and equipped with incredible 4.28 speed (40-yard dash), Nelson will be a WR4+ if he ever gets the chance to start.
We'll begin with the NFC West.
Five Biggest Questions
1. How will Carson Palmer fare coming off his best NFL season?
2. Will David Johnson be the team’s bell cow running back?
3. Will Chris Johnson garner enough touches to be fantasy relevant?
4. Was Larry Fitzgerald’s bounce-back 2015 season a fluke?
5. Will Michael Floyd become Palmer’s #1 target?
Carson Palmer—my irrelevant vote for 2014 MVP, when his injury transformed a Super Bowl-caliber team into the most inept playoff offense in a decade or more—is coming off his best year in 12 NFL seasons. Last year’s fifth-highest-scoring QB has all of his weapons back. Aside from a potentially brutal Week 16 (most people’s fantasy title games) matchup in Seattle, Palmer’s biggest downsides are the perennial “age” and “injury risk” issues. He had zero 3+ TD games after Week 11, but for now we can assume that pedestrian close-out was an anomaly. Although likely to regress a bit this year, he’s a good bet for top 10 QB production.
The running back situation is a bit muddled at the moment. On June 9, FOX Sports 910 Phoenix’s Mike Jurecki predicts a 60-30-10 split among David Johnson, Chris Johnson, and Andre Ellington, respectively. Around the same time, the Cardinals’ website pronounced that David was “expected to get the lion’s share of the work.” Meanwhile, ESPN Cardinals reporter Josh Weinfuss believes Chris Johnson will assume #1 RB duties. So yes, this is confusing as hell.
My take is that the soon-to-be 31-year-old CJ1K is on his last leg as a fantasy-relevant option. David is the future, and the future began Week 13 last season when the 23-/24-year-old helped propel savvy fantasy owners to a title. David is a better pass-catcher and netted a higher YPC (4.6) than CJ1K has seen since 2009.
What about Ellington? A seeming sixth round steal in the 2013 NFL draft, Andre has missed 10 games the past two seasons. He’s a free agent next season. Although an electrifying runner, Ellington needs a perfect storm to earn a meaningful weekly role. I like him as a Round 14 flier, because storms occasionally hit. But I wouldn’t be surprised if this were the last time I write about him all year.
At wide receiver, just when it looked like Larry Fitzgerald’s best days were behind him, he pulls an Antonio Gates, circa 2014, and ties for 10th most WR fantasy points last season. Is this a sign of things to come? No. Last year he was fifth in receptions—a career high—and 12th in targets but 90th in yards per reception—a career-low 11.1 average. Turning 33 in August, Fitz will not be leaned on as heavily with the continued development of Arizona’s other receivers. He’s my 29th ranked WR, a few slots behind Michael Floyd, who will be playing for a huge payday in the final year of his rookie contract. Floyd possesses the tools to be Palmer’s #1 target and a perennial top 20 WR; 1,000+ yards and 8+ scores should be expected. And of course, don’t forget about the undersized John Brown—a solid WR3 in most leagues whose big-play ability makes him a breakout candidate every week.
For dynasty leaguers—or if one of the Arizona’s starting receivers gets hurt—keep J.J. Nelson on your radar. Built in the John Brown mold and equipped with incredible 4.28 speed (40-yard dash), Nelson will be a WR4+ if he ever gets the chance to start.