Turning our focus to underrated and overrated Week 17 RBs--players whose production tomorrow will surprise a lot of people..
UNDERRATED:
(1) It's worth taking C.J. Anderson for one last spin this weekend. Week 17's 23rd ranked RB (based on 70 experts) has a dream matchup, if only he get get the touches. I think he'll get enough (12+) to be a solid RB2 with upside--a top 18 option with upside in the top 6.
(2) Theo Riddick is painfully underrated as this week's 40th ranked RB. He has top 20 potential in PPR and is a likely top 30 performer in standard against a Bears D that can't stop many people. 6+ catches and 70+ yards are a good bet. A TD is more likely than not.
(3) Tre Mason (42rd ranked RB) will start this weekend. He was last year's 22nd highest scoring fantasy RB despite playing in only 12 games. He could be a huge bust, or he could show the NFL that he deserves to be a starting RB for the right team. I think the latter is more likely: 80+ yards and a score.
OVERRATED:
(1) Adrian Peterson (3rd ranked RB) -- This has nothing to do with AP's talent and everything to do with his ranking. With Jerick McKinnon asserting himself as a future top 20 RB, I think AP's touches will be capped at 18; his postseason health is more important than playoff seeding. We're looking at 6-8 points on a bad day and 12-14 on a good day. But we're not looking at elite numbers.
(2) Latavius Murray (8th ranked RB) was one of my huge underrated performers heading into Week 16, and he came through with 117 total yards and a TD--his best output since Week 3. We'll see a regression tomorrow, as he finishes the season on a low note (less than 10 standard fantasy points).
(3) The most egregiously overrated RB projection is DeAngelo Williams (#1 ranked RB). It's a classic case of "look what he's done" rather than "look what he's likely to do." What he's done is incredible: eight TDs in the seven games since claiming the starting job for the I.R.'d Le'Veon Bell. And yes, he's facing Cleveland, owners of one of the league's worst defenses. But this will be Big Ben's game, not DeAngelo's. Ben had his worst game last Sunday in four years. It's a statement game. I'm going out on a limb in predicting 5+ TDs for Ben and zero for Williams.
UNDERRATED:
(1) It's worth taking C.J. Anderson for one last spin this weekend. Week 17's 23rd ranked RB (based on 70 experts) has a dream matchup, if only he get get the touches. I think he'll get enough (12+) to be a solid RB2 with upside--a top 18 option with upside in the top 6.
(2) Theo Riddick is painfully underrated as this week's 40th ranked RB. He has top 20 potential in PPR and is a likely top 30 performer in standard against a Bears D that can't stop many people. 6+ catches and 70+ yards are a good bet. A TD is more likely than not.
(3) Tre Mason (42rd ranked RB) will start this weekend. He was last year's 22nd highest scoring fantasy RB despite playing in only 12 games. He could be a huge bust, or he could show the NFL that he deserves to be a starting RB for the right team. I think the latter is more likely: 80+ yards and a score.
OVERRATED:
(1) Adrian Peterson (3rd ranked RB) -- This has nothing to do with AP's talent and everything to do with his ranking. With Jerick McKinnon asserting himself as a future top 20 RB, I think AP's touches will be capped at 18; his postseason health is more important than playoff seeding. We're looking at 6-8 points on a bad day and 12-14 on a good day. But we're not looking at elite numbers.
(2) Latavius Murray (8th ranked RB) was one of my huge underrated performers heading into Week 16, and he came through with 117 total yards and a TD--his best output since Week 3. We'll see a regression tomorrow, as he finishes the season on a low note (less than 10 standard fantasy points).
(3) The most egregiously overrated RB projection is DeAngelo Williams (#1 ranked RB). It's a classic case of "look what he's done" rather than "look what he's likely to do." What he's done is incredible: eight TDs in the seven games since claiming the starting job for the I.R.'d Le'Veon Bell. And yes, he's facing Cleveland, owners of one of the league's worst defenses. But this will be Big Ben's game, not DeAngelo's. Ben had his worst game last Sunday in four years. It's a statement game. I'm going out on a limb in predicting 5+ TDs for Ben and zero for Williams.