This blog was founded on two principles: accuracy and transparency. Each is worthless without the other: Sites promoting accurate predictions while not acknowledging bad calls aren't giving their readers the full picture, while fully transparent sites that aren't good at prognosticating often aren't very helpful.
With its focus on accuracy and transparency, this blog took a page out of the book "Fantasy Football for Winners" by eschewing obvious calls for under-the-radar / unconventional picks that could be difference makers. Following the herd is boring. Making our own path where very few roam . . . that's trend-setting, and it's the surest way to achieve fantasy dominance. Just ask those (among them, many of you) who early on saw what others didn't see in predominantly undrafted future fantasy studs like Blake Bortles, David Johnson, Doug Baldwin, and Gary Barnidge.
As many of you know, each preseason I make "bold" predictions to help fantasy footballers spot overrated and underrated talent before it's too late. Here's my final Top 50 list from this preseason, and attached is a breakdown of which ones turned out right and wrong:
https://www.facebook.com/FantasyFootballForWinners/photos/a.411875775527074.88302.332546230126696/907593759288604/?type=3&permPage=1
Looking back, it seems silly that I underestimated the Kelvin Benjamin-less Cam Newton and the suspension-less Tom Brady. I'm kicking myself for ignoring Frank Gore and Jonathan Stewart.
On the flip side, it's always satisfying when undervalued guys like Ryan Fitzpatrick and Allen Hurns, and overvalued players like DeMarco Murray and Alfred Morris, perform as expected.
I'm not entirely pleased with hitting 21 out of 50; I know that 30+ out of 50 is entirely doable and would be significantly more useful for all of you. But this is a good opportunity to take a step back, understand why I missed on some and clicked on others, and come back next preseason with a clearer sense of how to predict future performance.
Each preseason I also rank-order players at all six core positions:
https://www.facebook.com/FantasyFootballForWinners/posts/907981769249803
At season's end I examine which of my top 10 QBs/TEs/Ks/DST finished among the top 10 scorers at their respective position, and which of my top 20 RBs/WRs finished within their respective top 20. Then I compare these results with those of ESPN, CBS Sports, and Yahoo! Sports.
Last season my picks were more accurate than all three. This year they were the least accurate:
2014:
FF4W: 58%
ESPN: 48%
CBS Sports: 51%
Yahoo! Sports: 49%
2015:
FF4W: 44%
ESPN: 48%
CBS Sports: 51%
Yahoo! Sports: 54%
The "big three" are like the government bonds of the fantasy prognostication world: They're very stable year after year because they don't take many, if any, risks. Each preseason, most of the top 10/20 positional rankings across each major site are nearly identical.
FF4W is more volatile. I take more risks when the risks make sense. Most years my preseason picks are on par or better than the major competitors. This season most of the tough calls I made didn't pan out, whether because of injuries or simply poor play. Or I placed people just off the grid--like Allen Robinson as my 21st ranked WR; had I ranked him 20th, my score would have improved. But in the end, I simply didn't make the right tough calls, and it's important to own up to that.
Obviously, my goal next year is to get back on top. So starting in early June, I'll assemble whatever intel I can find, analyze it up and down, and draw conclusions that most people won't. Then I'll share it with you all and let the NFL season do the rest.
Have appreciated all your positive comments and messages this season. Looking forward to wrapping things up tomorrow with some final thoughts.
With its focus on accuracy and transparency, this blog took a page out of the book "Fantasy Football for Winners" by eschewing obvious calls for under-the-radar / unconventional picks that could be difference makers. Following the herd is boring. Making our own path where very few roam . . . that's trend-setting, and it's the surest way to achieve fantasy dominance. Just ask those (among them, many of you) who early on saw what others didn't see in predominantly undrafted future fantasy studs like Blake Bortles, David Johnson, Doug Baldwin, and Gary Barnidge.
As many of you know, each preseason I make "bold" predictions to help fantasy footballers spot overrated and underrated talent before it's too late. Here's my final Top 50 list from this preseason, and attached is a breakdown of which ones turned out right and wrong:
https://www.facebook.com/FantasyFootballForWinners/photos/a.411875775527074.88302.332546230126696/907593759288604/?type=3&permPage=1
Looking back, it seems silly that I underestimated the Kelvin Benjamin-less Cam Newton and the suspension-less Tom Brady. I'm kicking myself for ignoring Frank Gore and Jonathan Stewart.
On the flip side, it's always satisfying when undervalued guys like Ryan Fitzpatrick and Allen Hurns, and overvalued players like DeMarco Murray and Alfred Morris, perform as expected.
I'm not entirely pleased with hitting 21 out of 50; I know that 30+ out of 50 is entirely doable and would be significantly more useful for all of you. But this is a good opportunity to take a step back, understand why I missed on some and clicked on others, and come back next preseason with a clearer sense of how to predict future performance.
Each preseason I also rank-order players at all six core positions:
https://www.facebook.com/FantasyFootballForWinners/posts/907981769249803
At season's end I examine which of my top 10 QBs/TEs/Ks/DST finished among the top 10 scorers at their respective position, and which of my top 20 RBs/WRs finished within their respective top 20. Then I compare these results with those of ESPN, CBS Sports, and Yahoo! Sports.
Last season my picks were more accurate than all three. This year they were the least accurate:
2014:
FF4W: 58%
ESPN: 48%
CBS Sports: 51%
Yahoo! Sports: 49%
2015:
FF4W: 44%
ESPN: 48%
CBS Sports: 51%
Yahoo! Sports: 54%
The "big three" are like the government bonds of the fantasy prognostication world: They're very stable year after year because they don't take many, if any, risks. Each preseason, most of the top 10/20 positional rankings across each major site are nearly identical.
FF4W is more volatile. I take more risks when the risks make sense. Most years my preseason picks are on par or better than the major competitors. This season most of the tough calls I made didn't pan out, whether because of injuries or simply poor play. Or I placed people just off the grid--like Allen Robinson as my 21st ranked WR; had I ranked him 20th, my score would have improved. But in the end, I simply didn't make the right tough calls, and it's important to own up to that.
Obviously, my goal next year is to get back on top. So starting in early June, I'll assemble whatever intel I can find, analyze it up and down, and draw conclusions that most people won't. Then I'll share it with you all and let the NFL season do the rest.
Have appreciated all your positive comments and messages this season. Looking forward to wrapping things up tomorrow with some final thoughts.