Nearly everyone who makes it to the finals has a great team on paper. But just like in real life, it's all about execution.
During this preseason's fantasy drafts--millions of them all around the world--virtually no one picked Kirk Cousins as their QB, or Tim Hightower / Jerick McKinnon (RBs), or Dontrelle Inman / Nate Washington / Kenny Britt (WRs and flex), or Vance McDonald (TE), or the Redskins DST.
Yet each of these players is among the highest Week 16 scorers at their respective position. Sprinkled in with some reliable early-round talents (AP, Julio Jones, etc.), and you have the makings of a dominant championship performance.
It's not that easy, of course. We don't know what we don't know. In the preseason we're presented with expert rankings and ADP charts explaining how to value each player. By late December--and really, by early October--we have a much better understanding of the truth. But it's still a game based on probabilities.
For example, this past week I explained why Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, and Cousins would be Week 16 busts. Rodgers and Cam played as expected. The logic I used to predict their collapse held true. My logic for Cousins, however, was clearly flawed. Many of you used different logic, started Cousins, and are basking in glory because of it.
In that way, everyone has moments of brilliance and of head scratching. Ben Roethlisberger was the ultimate Sunday head-scratcher: A fantastic matchup in a must-win contest. Yet he played his worst game since (I looked it up) December 19, 2011. Some things can't easily be predicted--or at least, some things I'll never be able to predict.
And that's the beauty of fantasy football: There's no such thing as perfection. We play the game as well as we can, learn from our mistakes, and return next season a little bit smarter.
To those of you who are still playing for something, good luck, and let me know who needs to do what so I can cheer you on. To everyone, I'll spend the next week summing up the season and answering questions as usual. Next week we'll wrap things up: In the interest of transparency, I'll report on my 50 preseason bold predictions and my top 10/20 preseason positional rankings compared to some notable sites. I haven't looked at any of that for several months, so it'll be interesting to see how it all pans out.
During this preseason's fantasy drafts--millions of them all around the world--virtually no one picked Kirk Cousins as their QB, or Tim Hightower / Jerick McKinnon (RBs), or Dontrelle Inman / Nate Washington / Kenny Britt (WRs and flex), or Vance McDonald (TE), or the Redskins DST.
Yet each of these players is among the highest Week 16 scorers at their respective position. Sprinkled in with some reliable early-round talents (AP, Julio Jones, etc.), and you have the makings of a dominant championship performance.
It's not that easy, of course. We don't know what we don't know. In the preseason we're presented with expert rankings and ADP charts explaining how to value each player. By late December--and really, by early October--we have a much better understanding of the truth. But it's still a game based on probabilities.
For example, this past week I explained why Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, and Cousins would be Week 16 busts. Rodgers and Cam played as expected. The logic I used to predict their collapse held true. My logic for Cousins, however, was clearly flawed. Many of you used different logic, started Cousins, and are basking in glory because of it.
In that way, everyone has moments of brilliance and of head scratching. Ben Roethlisberger was the ultimate Sunday head-scratcher: A fantastic matchup in a must-win contest. Yet he played his worst game since (I looked it up) December 19, 2011. Some things can't easily be predicted--or at least, some things I'll never be able to predict.
And that's the beauty of fantasy football: There's no such thing as perfection. We play the game as well as we can, learn from our mistakes, and return next season a little bit smarter.
To those of you who are still playing for something, good luck, and let me know who needs to do what so I can cheer you on. To everyone, I'll spend the next week summing up the season and answering questions as usual. Next week we'll wrap things up: In the interest of transparency, I'll report on my 50 preseason bold predictions and my top 10/20 preseason positional rankings compared to some notable sites. I haven't looked at any of that for several months, so it'll be interesting to see how it all pans out.