Week 16 Predictions

Merry day-after-Christmas, everyone.  I'm definitely in the Christmas spirit after asking my three-year-old for a hug this morning.  He responded, "Some people like to hug, and some people like to hug later."  The implication, of course, is that he'd take a rain check.

Likewise, there are players who embrace fantasy success, and others whose success comes later--sometimes too late to help our team.  As I mentioned a couple days ago, Kirk Cousins won't be handing out fantasy hugs tonight.  I'm seeing three turnovers and a lot of frustrated managers who thought he'd be a lock for top 10 QB value.  You've been warned.  Twice.

I think we'll see "bad" Alfred Morris today.  And with only one double-digit fantasy day since Week 1, he shouldn't be in most starting lineups anyway.  And Matt Jones--if he even plays--is the same boom-bust guy we've seen all season.  You can do better.

Jordan Reed can't be benched, but among the two I prefer Zach Ertz tonight.  Pierre Garcon is a desperation PPR play--not a guy I'd lean on in Championship Week.  DeSean Jackson?  Sure, he's always worth a start if you don't have a sure-fire 8+ point WR.  But keep in mind he's one of the biggest boom-bust WRs out there, and like Calvin Johnson last week, he's as likely to get you two scores (won't happen tonight) as he is to net three catches for 30 yards.

On the flip side, the consensus 20th ranked Week 16 QB, Sam Bradford, will outperform Cousins.  He'll be aided by a revived Jordan Matthews (easily worth the start as a WR3 flex with big upside) and Darren Sproles (50+ yards and a likely score).  Assuming DeMarco Murray continues to ride the pine, Ryan Mathews will collect 80+ yards and a likely score.  So by my count, the two prominent Philly RBs not named DeMarco are worth starting, with Sproles a better PPR play and Mathews a safer standard play.

And finally, ignore the fact the Eagles' D is the consensus 21st ranked DST this week.  They'll be a top 10 option.