None of my Week 15 TE fliers panned out. But the other guys all played at or above expectations on Sunday
- Three TDs for Philip Rivers? Three TDs.
- Danny Woodhead a likely bargain as the 35th ranked RB? Three TDs.
- 50th ranked RB Cameron Artis-Payne posting top 30 RB numbers? Finishes just inside the top 20.
- 25th ranked WR Amari Cooper racking up 100+ yards and two scores? Result: 120 yards and two scores.
Each of these guys was coming off bad-to-devastatingly-bad Week 14 performances. Yet all were hyped as severely underrated. It's yet another example of why past performance doesn't dictate future performance. There are outliers--more than we realize. Spotting them ahead of time is the key.
Looking to tonight's matchup, the over-under is 51.5, which says everything we need to know about what's coming. The Lions have given up 18+ points in all but one game this season and are a great bet to yield 27+. The Saints are giving up a league-worst 31 points per game, and by my count are on pace to yield the most points by any NFL team since the 2011 Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Because there's so much scoring potential, many seasons will be won or lost tonight. Let's go around the horn:
Both Brees and Stafford should get 3+ TDs. As always, Theo Riddick is a key to Stafford's success. His 67 receptions lead all RBs. As a PPR or DFS play, he should be money (figuratively and literally).
My love of Ameer Abdullah (figuratively, not literally) has obviously waned, but largely because he has only two TDs to show for his 134 touches. He reminds of 2014's Jerick McKinnon--a ton of talent, but not much to show for it (although to be fair, McKinnon looked much better with his 140 touches, despite not scoring at all last season). There's little reason to expect an Abdullah breakout, but he remains one of my favorite below-the-radar dynasty RBs.
Tonight's matchup is made for Calvin Johnson. His bum ankle aside, Johnson is--believe it or not--the 11th highest scoring WR this season in standard leagues. He's on pace for 1,207 yards. After tonight, that pace will rise about 1,260. And Golden Tate is finally coming around. Despite being only the 36th highest scoring fantasy WR, he could finish the season in the top 25, thanks to games against the Saints, Niners, and Bears. Tate is a must-start in PPR tonight and a solid flex guy in standard leagues. And after a promising start to the season, TE Eric Ebron is a shot in the dark--nothing more.
For New Orleans, I suppose it's officially the Tim Hightower show. Last week I cautioned folks against starting him and was proven wrong. This week I've continued to caution against him. If he can get some goal line carries, more power to those who start him. But in PPR, I'd much rather roll with Riddick. And at flex, I'd much rather go with Calvin, Tate, Cooks, and probably Snead.
Speaking of Cooks and Snead, the former will be a top 15 WR this week, while the latter will finish in the top 25. How about Marques Colston's two TDs last week? I'm ignoring them. Colston stepped up for Cooks; I'm not expecting that to happen again tonight. At TE, I'm a very late Ben Watson convert--so late it's embarrassing. If you picked him up early and rode the wave, congrats on what should be an easy 8+ points tonight.
- Three TDs for Philip Rivers? Three TDs.
- Danny Woodhead a likely bargain as the 35th ranked RB? Three TDs.
- 50th ranked RB Cameron Artis-Payne posting top 30 RB numbers? Finishes just inside the top 20.
- 25th ranked WR Amari Cooper racking up 100+ yards and two scores? Result: 120 yards and two scores.
Each of these guys was coming off bad-to-devastatingly-bad Week 14 performances. Yet all were hyped as severely underrated. It's yet another example of why past performance doesn't dictate future performance. There are outliers--more than we realize. Spotting them ahead of time is the key.
Looking to tonight's matchup, the over-under is 51.5, which says everything we need to know about what's coming. The Lions have given up 18+ points in all but one game this season and are a great bet to yield 27+. The Saints are giving up a league-worst 31 points per game, and by my count are on pace to yield the most points by any NFL team since the 2011 Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Because there's so much scoring potential, many seasons will be won or lost tonight. Let's go around the horn:
Both Brees and Stafford should get 3+ TDs. As always, Theo Riddick is a key to Stafford's success. His 67 receptions lead all RBs. As a PPR or DFS play, he should be money (figuratively and literally).
My love of Ameer Abdullah (figuratively, not literally) has obviously waned, but largely because he has only two TDs to show for his 134 touches. He reminds of 2014's Jerick McKinnon--a ton of talent, but not much to show for it (although to be fair, McKinnon looked much better with his 140 touches, despite not scoring at all last season). There's little reason to expect an Abdullah breakout, but he remains one of my favorite below-the-radar dynasty RBs.
Tonight's matchup is made for Calvin Johnson. His bum ankle aside, Johnson is--believe it or not--the 11th highest scoring WR this season in standard leagues. He's on pace for 1,207 yards. After tonight, that pace will rise about 1,260. And Golden Tate is finally coming around. Despite being only the 36th highest scoring fantasy WR, he could finish the season in the top 25, thanks to games against the Saints, Niners, and Bears. Tate is a must-start in PPR tonight and a solid flex guy in standard leagues. And after a promising start to the season, TE Eric Ebron is a shot in the dark--nothing more.
For New Orleans, I suppose it's officially the Tim Hightower show. Last week I cautioned folks against starting him and was proven wrong. This week I've continued to caution against him. If he can get some goal line carries, more power to those who start him. But in PPR, I'd much rather roll with Riddick. And at flex, I'd much rather go with Calvin, Tate, Cooks, and probably Snead.
Speaking of Cooks and Snead, the former will be a top 15 WR this week, while the latter will finish in the top 25. How about Marques Colston's two TDs last week? I'm ignoring them. Colston stepped up for Cooks; I'm not expecting that to happen again tonight. At TE, I'm a very late Ben Watson convert--so late it's embarrassing. If you picked him up early and rode the wave, congrats on what should be an easy 8+ points tonight.