30 years ago, in 1985, 11 RBs had at least 250 rushing attempts. 20 years ago, the total was 15. 10 years ago, it was 17. Presently, zero RBs have reached that plateau, and it's quite possible only six or seven RBs will get these by season's end.
This is the world we live in in 2015. Only three years ago, 14 RBs exceeded 250 carries, so it's not as if the trend line is pointing downward. 2015 is largely a statistical anomaly, brought on by a rash of injuries and plenty of RBBCs (including the Giants' unseemly (from a fantasy perspective) four-headed monster.
So fantasy managers this year have fewer reliable RBs to choose from. It's meant we need to look deeper to find 5-8 point guys with upside. It's meant rolling the dice on a running back in a two-RB system.
With that in mind, let's look at some RBBCs and identify who's most likely to produce startable numbers in Week 14:
(1) Packers -- Eddie Lacy, Eddie Lacy, Eddie Lacy. Ignore the fact that he was punished in Week 13 for missing his curfew. According to news reports, there's no evidence that he's still in the doghouse. James Starks is as I thought he'd be--a solid change-of-pace back, but not a reliable 20-touch guy. I'd start Lacy confidently as an RB3/flex this week, knowing that there's a 20-30% chance he'll disappoint, and a 40-50% chance that he'll exceed expectations.
(2) Eagles -- If contracts didn't matter, Ryan Mathews would be starting this week in Philly. His 75 rushes for 427 yards (5.7 YPC) and five TDs are criminally under-appreciated in the real world. But we don't live in the real world. DeMarco Murray won't be benched, because Philly's management won't admit they threw away $21 million in guaranteed money on a player who had almost no chance to thrive this season (see my early June column to understand why not). It's a backfield to avoid this week in all but the deepest leagues. We need to see how this will shake out. If Mathews can work his way to 12+ touches a game, he enters the RB3/flex conversation.
(3) Broncos -- While C.J. Anderson hasn't practiced this week, that doesn't mean he's sitting out Sunday's game. That said, starting him in your league is a bolder move than I'd make. Hillman should be tentatively viewed as startable in most leagues, while Juwan Thompson is a decent dart throw if C.J. sits.
(4) Saints -- Tim Hightower has had more than 18 carries in three career NFL games. In case you're keeping score, that's not a lot. Even if he gets the start, I prefer C.J. Spiller this week because Spiller (IMO) is a more talented back, both in the running game and as a pass-catcher. I've urged folks to wait a week if they can so they can see how this plays out. But if you're desperate, Spiller is worth the risk.
(5) Chiefs -- I give the edge to Charcandrick West. Everything could chance from one week to the next. But I believe Kansas City trusts West as a 1a back.
(6) Patriots -- Knowing nothing about Bill Belichick's decision making process, I consulted my two cats this morning. They said to start LeGarrette Blount. That's good enough for me.
This is the world we live in in 2015. Only three years ago, 14 RBs exceeded 250 carries, so it's not as if the trend line is pointing downward. 2015 is largely a statistical anomaly, brought on by a rash of injuries and plenty of RBBCs (including the Giants' unseemly (from a fantasy perspective) four-headed monster.
So fantasy managers this year have fewer reliable RBs to choose from. It's meant we need to look deeper to find 5-8 point guys with upside. It's meant rolling the dice on a running back in a two-RB system.
With that in mind, let's look at some RBBCs and identify who's most likely to produce startable numbers in Week 14:
(1) Packers -- Eddie Lacy, Eddie Lacy, Eddie Lacy. Ignore the fact that he was punished in Week 13 for missing his curfew. According to news reports, there's no evidence that he's still in the doghouse. James Starks is as I thought he'd be--a solid change-of-pace back, but not a reliable 20-touch guy. I'd start Lacy confidently as an RB3/flex this week, knowing that there's a 20-30% chance he'll disappoint, and a 40-50% chance that he'll exceed expectations.
(2) Eagles -- If contracts didn't matter, Ryan Mathews would be starting this week in Philly. His 75 rushes for 427 yards (5.7 YPC) and five TDs are criminally under-appreciated in the real world. But we don't live in the real world. DeMarco Murray won't be benched, because Philly's management won't admit they threw away $21 million in guaranteed money on a player who had almost no chance to thrive this season (see my early June column to understand why not). It's a backfield to avoid this week in all but the deepest leagues. We need to see how this will shake out. If Mathews can work his way to 12+ touches a game, he enters the RB3/flex conversation.
(3) Broncos -- While C.J. Anderson hasn't practiced this week, that doesn't mean he's sitting out Sunday's game. That said, starting him in your league is a bolder move than I'd make. Hillman should be tentatively viewed as startable in most leagues, while Juwan Thompson is a decent dart throw if C.J. sits.
(4) Saints -- Tim Hightower has had more than 18 carries in three career NFL games. In case you're keeping score, that's not a lot. Even if he gets the start, I prefer C.J. Spiller this week because Spiller (IMO) is a more talented back, both in the running game and as a pass-catcher. I've urged folks to wait a week if they can so they can see how this plays out. But if you're desperate, Spiller is worth the risk.
(5) Chiefs -- I give the edge to Charcandrick West. Everything could chance from one week to the next. But I believe Kansas City trusts West as a 1a back.
(6) Patriots -- Knowing nothing about Bill Belichick's decision making process, I consulted my two cats this morning. They said to start LeGarrette Blount. That's good enough for me.