If you're like me, every year there are at least two--and often three or four--fantasy Super Bowls. They're weeks when any NFL play might be the difference between your glorious season advancing or ending. It's why sometimes managers freeze up, overthinking the all-important decisions guiding their roster and lineup moves.
In the book FF4W, I devote only a fraction of attention to the fantasy playoffs as I do for the preseason and regular season. Was it laziness? Senility? Some combination of the two?
My view is that our decision-making process should be no different in the fantasy playoffs as it is in the regular season. Everything we learned for weeks 1-13 are applicable--and in fact, should be fully applied--during the stretch run. Well reasoned bold moves are equally likely to be successful in Week 8 as they are in Week 14. Playing it safe is equally likely to produce higher floors and lower ceilings in Week 2 as they are in your championship game.
I'm in three leagues this season, and have made it to the playoffs in all three. My thinking today is the same as it's been the past 13 Sundays: Which rostered and available players will give me the highest probability to score the most points? I might get unlucky: On my 20-team league roster, where A.J. Green has looked dominant recently and the Seahawks DST are expected to excel, both might dramatically underperform today. If that happens, so be it. I can't control outliers; I can only predict likely results, and then roll the dice that expectations will be met.
So as you make final decisions today, be confident that your savvy decision making has gotten you this far. Trust it for another week.
As for late-breaking news, DeMarco Murray has been demoted to a fourth-string RB. It's been a long time coming, and it's nice to see a franchise focus more on winning (they're far less likely to win with Murray getting 20 touches) than on doubling down on an error in judgment (Murray's offseason signing). So for the Eagles today, Darren Sproles is expected to start. In PPR, he's an RB2/3. In standard leagues, Ryan Mathews is a bit risky, but has high-end RB2 upside if he earned 18+ touches.
Last week and again a few days ago I urged everyone to add the highly available Chiefs DST. They're a top 3 play today, and have the type of matchup that could single-handedly guide managers to victory in the fantasy playoffs.
C.J. Anderson isn't expected to play much, if at all, today. That puts Ronnie Hillman on the RB1 map--though all that flies out the window if Gary Kubiak adopts a hot-hand strategy and Juwan Thompson seizes it. If you have Hillman, he's a must-start based on potential. If you have Thompson and are debating whether to start him or an Alfred Blue-caliber RB, I'd take a chance with Thompson.
Rob Gronkowski could take the field today, but you don't want to get burned if he doesn't--or if he serves merely as a decoy. Based on probabilities, I'd look elsewhere.
Eddie Lacy is expected to start for Green Bay. He was a top 6 draft pick in nearly every league this preseason. I'd be shocked if he didn't make good on his potential. No longer in the doghouse and allegedly no longer battling serious injuries, he's a must-start RB1/2.
Good luck, everyone.
In the book FF4W, I devote only a fraction of attention to the fantasy playoffs as I do for the preseason and regular season. Was it laziness? Senility? Some combination of the two?
My view is that our decision-making process should be no different in the fantasy playoffs as it is in the regular season. Everything we learned for weeks 1-13 are applicable--and in fact, should be fully applied--during the stretch run. Well reasoned bold moves are equally likely to be successful in Week 8 as they are in Week 14. Playing it safe is equally likely to produce higher floors and lower ceilings in Week 2 as they are in your championship game.
I'm in three leagues this season, and have made it to the playoffs in all three. My thinking today is the same as it's been the past 13 Sundays: Which rostered and available players will give me the highest probability to score the most points? I might get unlucky: On my 20-team league roster, where A.J. Green has looked dominant recently and the Seahawks DST are expected to excel, both might dramatically underperform today. If that happens, so be it. I can't control outliers; I can only predict likely results, and then roll the dice that expectations will be met.
So as you make final decisions today, be confident that your savvy decision making has gotten you this far. Trust it for another week.
As for late-breaking news, DeMarco Murray has been demoted to a fourth-string RB. It's been a long time coming, and it's nice to see a franchise focus more on winning (they're far less likely to win with Murray getting 20 touches) than on doubling down on an error in judgment (Murray's offseason signing). So for the Eagles today, Darren Sproles is expected to start. In PPR, he's an RB2/3. In standard leagues, Ryan Mathews is a bit risky, but has high-end RB2 upside if he earned 18+ touches.
Last week and again a few days ago I urged everyone to add the highly available Chiefs DST. They're a top 3 play today, and have the type of matchup that could single-handedly guide managers to victory in the fantasy playoffs.
C.J. Anderson isn't expected to play much, if at all, today. That puts Ronnie Hillman on the RB1 map--though all that flies out the window if Gary Kubiak adopts a hot-hand strategy and Juwan Thompson seizes it. If you have Hillman, he's a must-start based on potential. If you have Thompson and are debating whether to start him or an Alfred Blue-caliber RB, I'd take a chance with Thompson.
Rob Gronkowski could take the field today, but you don't want to get burned if he doesn't--or if he serves merely as a decoy. Based on probabilities, I'd look elsewhere.
Eddie Lacy is expected to start for Green Bay. He was a top 6 draft pick in nearly every league this preseason. I'd be shocked if he didn't make good on his potential. No longer in the doghouse and allegedly no longer battling serious injuries, he's a must-start RB1/2.
Good luck, everyone.