A final thought on two-point conversions (it's still very early in the preseason, so we have the luxury of taking deep dives into the minutia). Ryan Zarling's comment yesterday spurred some more thinking about where we can assign greater value. I showed how QBs stand to gain the most, as over the past three seasons they've been more involved in successful two-point conversions than any other position:
-- 70% more involved than WRs
-- 160% more involved than RBs
-- 310% more involved than TEs
But three other factors should be considered:
(1) Kicker accuracy from 30-39 yards (ideally from 30-35 yards, but that breakdown is hard to pull together)
(2) Offensive prowess
(3) Defensive prowess
For #1, for his career (since 2007), Mason Crosby's hit 87% of 30-39 yard FG attempts. In his last 10 seasons, Matt Bryant's hit 96% from that range. So based solely on that factor, one could realistically assume that the Packers are more likely than the Falcons to go for the two-point conversion this year, because their kicker isn't reliable enough from that range. That would mean Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson, etc. would get a slight bump compared to Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, etc. Building off of Ryan's point, why would the Falcons risk throwing a Pick-2 (a four-point swing) if your kicker can nail the PAT 19 times out of 20?
For #'s 2 and 3, I'm proposing that there will be a gradated relationship between a team's point differential and how frequently it'll go for the PAT. Last year the Patriots, Seahawks, Packers, and Broncos averaged 8+ points per game more than their opponents. Specifically, eight of the Pats' wins were by 22+ points. There is little-to-no reason for an elite team to go for two points after a TD if they're winning convincingly. So if we know which teams will be elite this year, we might determine which positional players are less likely to benefit from two-point conversions.
Conversely, the Jaguars, Titans, and Raiders averaged 10+ points per game *less* than their opponents last year. The Jags' Josh Scobee has missed only one FG attempt from 30-39 yards in the last four years. But if the team continues last year's futility, which included eight 14+ point losses, I'm betting they'd be more likely than most teams to go for two-point conversions.
This theory is now ready to be applied to my draft board. When applied, it could mean a 2% bump in weekly scoring. In coordination with other theories, we start to see how to construct meaningful advantages that can turn a perennial sixth place team into a champion.
-- 70% more involved than WRs
-- 160% more involved than RBs
-- 310% more involved than TEs
But three other factors should be considered:
(1) Kicker accuracy from 30-39 yards (ideally from 30-35 yards, but that breakdown is hard to pull together)
(2) Offensive prowess
(3) Defensive prowess
For #1, for his career (since 2007), Mason Crosby's hit 87% of 30-39 yard FG attempts. In his last 10 seasons, Matt Bryant's hit 96% from that range. So based solely on that factor, one could realistically assume that the Packers are more likely than the Falcons to go for the two-point conversion this year, because their kicker isn't reliable enough from that range. That would mean Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson, etc. would get a slight bump compared to Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, etc. Building off of Ryan's point, why would the Falcons risk throwing a Pick-2 (a four-point swing) if your kicker can nail the PAT 19 times out of 20?
For #'s 2 and 3, I'm proposing that there will be a gradated relationship between a team's point differential and how frequently it'll go for the PAT. Last year the Patriots, Seahawks, Packers, and Broncos averaged 8+ points per game more than their opponents. Specifically, eight of the Pats' wins were by 22+ points. There is little-to-no reason for an elite team to go for two points after a TD if they're winning convincingly. So if we know which teams will be elite this year, we might determine which positional players are less likely to benefit from two-point conversions.
Conversely, the Jaguars, Titans, and Raiders averaged 10+ points per game *less* than their opponents last year. The Jags' Josh Scobee has missed only one FG attempt from 30-39 yards in the last four years. But if the team continues last year's futility, which included eight 14+ point losses, I'm betting they'd be more likely than most teams to go for two-point conversions.
This theory is now ready to be applied to my draft board. When applied, it could mean a 2% bump in weekly scoring. In coordination with other theories, we start to see how to construct meaningful advantages that can turn a perennial sixth place team into a champion.