It's not just who we start, but who we avoid that separates winners from losers. I should have avoided the gimpy Calvin Johnson Monday night. Fortunately, I made it to the finals despite his playing a decoy role. I can't make that same mistake this week.
Looking around the league, there are two QBs I'm not touching. One is Kirk Cousins, and he's the consensus 10th ranked fantasy QB this week.
Don't get me wrong: I've been a Cousins fan since this summer, when I wrote on this blog that RGIII would eventually lose his job this season, and that Cousins would replace him and be a solid fantasy option. At the time, RGIII was the presumptive starter, and it remained to be seen whether Cousins or Colt McCoy would back him up. The fact is, Cousins has top 10 QB potential next season if he continues progressing.
But let's not get ahead of ourselves. I believe the Redskins will miss the playoffs this season, and many people--rightly or wrongly--will be blaming Cousins.
Washington goes on the road to face a Philly team that needs to win to stay alive. I think they'll win by 20, leaving the Redskins reeling heading into a Week 17 road game against their even bigger rival, the Cowboys.
Washington is 1-5 on the road this season. In those games, Cousins owns a 6/9 TD/INT mark. He's averaged 11 fantasy points in those games. True, two results came against the Jets and Panthers. But his body of work this season suggests, at best, mediocrity on the road.
The Eagles will win this game, and Cousins will be an awful fantasy starter--no more than 13 standard-league points. Take it to the bank and cash it. (But don't spend it yet, just to be safe.)
The other guy I'm not touching is consensus #2 Week 16 QB Cam Newton. WHAT? Did I really write that?
Cam's coming off the best game of his career. The Panthers are 14-0 with a magic number of 1 to clinch home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. Why wouldn't the good times keep rolling?
I can't back this up by scientific evidence (and would love it if someone could), but anecdotally I've found that the deeper we go into an NFL season, the more impactful home field advantage is. Who cares that Carolina obliterated Atlanta 38-0 two weeks ago? That was in North Carolina. In their Georgian confines, the Falcons--like the Eagles--remain in playoff contention. This is a must-win game. While they might not win, they'll keep it far closer than many believe.
Beyond that extra motivation, I believe the Panthers will focus more on the run. Their RBs rushed only 21 times against the Giants Sunday. Expect that number to hit 28+ this weekend, as Carolina plays just a notch more conservatively to limit the number of times Cam gets hit and to limit the number of times Ted Ginn, Greg Olsen, and company get tackled.
Those expecting Cam to throw five TD passes--or even three--will be disappointed. I'm anticipating no more than 19 points for the phenom, pushing him outside the top 10 QBs this week.
No one would dare bench Cam. But those who agree, and those who do, are more likely than not to be glad they did.
Looking around the league, there are two QBs I'm not touching. One is Kirk Cousins, and he's the consensus 10th ranked fantasy QB this week.
Don't get me wrong: I've been a Cousins fan since this summer, when I wrote on this blog that RGIII would eventually lose his job this season, and that Cousins would replace him and be a solid fantasy option. At the time, RGIII was the presumptive starter, and it remained to be seen whether Cousins or Colt McCoy would back him up. The fact is, Cousins has top 10 QB potential next season if he continues progressing.
But let's not get ahead of ourselves. I believe the Redskins will miss the playoffs this season, and many people--rightly or wrongly--will be blaming Cousins.
Washington goes on the road to face a Philly team that needs to win to stay alive. I think they'll win by 20, leaving the Redskins reeling heading into a Week 17 road game against their even bigger rival, the Cowboys.
Washington is 1-5 on the road this season. In those games, Cousins owns a 6/9 TD/INT mark. He's averaged 11 fantasy points in those games. True, two results came against the Jets and Panthers. But his body of work this season suggests, at best, mediocrity on the road.
The Eagles will win this game, and Cousins will be an awful fantasy starter--no more than 13 standard-league points. Take it to the bank and cash it. (But don't spend it yet, just to be safe.)
The other guy I'm not touching is consensus #2 Week 16 QB Cam Newton. WHAT? Did I really write that?
Cam's coming off the best game of his career. The Panthers are 14-0 with a magic number of 1 to clinch home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. Why wouldn't the good times keep rolling?
I can't back this up by scientific evidence (and would love it if someone could), but anecdotally I've found that the deeper we go into an NFL season, the more impactful home field advantage is. Who cares that Carolina obliterated Atlanta 38-0 two weeks ago? That was in North Carolina. In their Georgian confines, the Falcons--like the Eagles--remain in playoff contention. This is a must-win game. While they might not win, they'll keep it far closer than many believe.
Beyond that extra motivation, I believe the Panthers will focus more on the run. Their RBs rushed only 21 times against the Giants Sunday. Expect that number to hit 28+ this weekend, as Carolina plays just a notch more conservatively to limit the number of times Cam gets hit and to limit the number of times Ted Ginn, Greg Olsen, and company get tackled.
Those expecting Cam to throw five TD passes--or even three--will be disappointed. I'm anticipating no more than 19 points for the phenom, pushing him outside the top 10 QBs this week.
No one would dare bench Cam. But those who agree, and those who do, are more likely than not to be glad they did.