Statistics impact future player performance, but they don’t dictate future player performance.
In other words, stats tell us not what will happen, but what is possible or probable. Take A.J. McCarron: He threw for 280 and two scores last week after replacing Andy Dalton in the first quarter. Not bad for a second-year pro who entered the game with four career NFL pass attempts. So here’s what we know: in a favorable matchup, all other things being equal, the Bengals have great potential at moving the ball through the air. This makes McCarron a worthwhile starter this week in 2-QB leagues and a decent flier in 14+ team leagues.
On the other side of the spectrum is Ben Roethlisberger. “What’s possible” for Ben is six TDs in a game, as he did twice in the span of eight days last season. His body of work is 147 times greater than McCarron’s. So all things being equal (a key phrase, obviously, because so many variables can impact likely results), Ben is a better play this week than McCarron—not because he’s thrown for six TDs, but because his body of work suggests that great games are the norm, while the verdict is still out on McCarron.
Sure, Ben is facing a tough Denver D. But throwing for 456 yards against the Seahawks in Seattle a few weeks ago is telling; it shows what we already know about the Steelers: They are an offensive juggernaut, with five straight 30+ point games. And most times, Ben is a primary beneficiary of the team’s scoring prowess.
Let’s apply this thinking to tonight’s game. I’ve fielded a lot of questions concerning Mike Evans. Is last year’s 11th highest scoring fantasy WR worthy of even a flex slot in your win-or-go-home Week 15 matchup? To help answer this, let’s turn to what I wrote about the Tampa Bay Bucs on July 8th:
https://www.facebook.com/FantasyFootballForWinners/posts/879149848799662
“This year, no one’s underestimating Evans. His #12 WR ADP may seem justifiable, but I wouldn’t reach for him. 43% of his 2014 production came in weeks 9-11. His 12 TDs were a fluke when you consider that the Bucs were 29th in rushing yards and 27th in rushing TDs. There was no balance to the offense. Evans accounted for 43% of the team’s offensive TDs. Vincent Jackson? 7%. None of this is sustainable. Evans should be a top 20 WR, but he’s not worth drafting at his current inflated value.”
Readers of this blog should not be surprised that Evans is having a relatively down year. But it has nothing to do with usage or yardage (he’s on pace to top last year’s target and yardage totals). As expected, it has everything to do with TDs; his three scores place him in a tie for last among the top 47 fantasy WRs.
Without trying to read minds, I’m speculating that people are asking about Evans because they see he’s the 29th highest scoring WR. He’s a WR3 on teams that might want to start Tim Hightower or Denard Robinson in that WR3/flex slot. And the Rams’ passing D is good; look what they did to Calvin Johnson last week. But they’re far from invincible.
Evans should be in nearly all starting lineups because he’s very likely to match or exceed his average 2015 production (9.4 points per game, standard scoring). He has double-digit fantasy points in four of his past six games. We know what’s possible for Evans. 150 yards and a score are entirely doable. 10+ points are quite likely. We don't *know* anything. But we have evidence that his potential is real and realizable.
And so, Evans’ historical record suggests that he’s a solid Week 15 bet. At a time when injuries have ravaged lineups and waiver wires are scoured like gold mines, it’s a worthwhile risk to start someone who’s done more with little than possibly any other receiver this season.
In other words, stats tell us not what will happen, but what is possible or probable. Take A.J. McCarron: He threw for 280 and two scores last week after replacing Andy Dalton in the first quarter. Not bad for a second-year pro who entered the game with four career NFL pass attempts. So here’s what we know: in a favorable matchup, all other things being equal, the Bengals have great potential at moving the ball through the air. This makes McCarron a worthwhile starter this week in 2-QB leagues and a decent flier in 14+ team leagues.
On the other side of the spectrum is Ben Roethlisberger. “What’s possible” for Ben is six TDs in a game, as he did twice in the span of eight days last season. His body of work is 147 times greater than McCarron’s. So all things being equal (a key phrase, obviously, because so many variables can impact likely results), Ben is a better play this week than McCarron—not because he’s thrown for six TDs, but because his body of work suggests that great games are the norm, while the verdict is still out on McCarron.
Sure, Ben is facing a tough Denver D. But throwing for 456 yards against the Seahawks in Seattle a few weeks ago is telling; it shows what we already know about the Steelers: They are an offensive juggernaut, with five straight 30+ point games. And most times, Ben is a primary beneficiary of the team’s scoring prowess.
Let’s apply this thinking to tonight’s game. I’ve fielded a lot of questions concerning Mike Evans. Is last year’s 11th highest scoring fantasy WR worthy of even a flex slot in your win-or-go-home Week 15 matchup? To help answer this, let’s turn to what I wrote about the Tampa Bay Bucs on July 8th:
https://www.facebook.com/FantasyFootballForWinners/posts/879149848799662
“This year, no one’s underestimating Evans. His #12 WR ADP may seem justifiable, but I wouldn’t reach for him. 43% of his 2014 production came in weeks 9-11. His 12 TDs were a fluke when you consider that the Bucs were 29th in rushing yards and 27th in rushing TDs. There was no balance to the offense. Evans accounted for 43% of the team’s offensive TDs. Vincent Jackson? 7%. None of this is sustainable. Evans should be a top 20 WR, but he’s not worth drafting at his current inflated value.”
Readers of this blog should not be surprised that Evans is having a relatively down year. But it has nothing to do with usage or yardage (he’s on pace to top last year’s target and yardage totals). As expected, it has everything to do with TDs; his three scores place him in a tie for last among the top 47 fantasy WRs.
Without trying to read minds, I’m speculating that people are asking about Evans because they see he’s the 29th highest scoring WR. He’s a WR3 on teams that might want to start Tim Hightower or Denard Robinson in that WR3/flex slot. And the Rams’ passing D is good; look what they did to Calvin Johnson last week. But they’re far from invincible.
Evans should be in nearly all starting lineups because he’s very likely to match or exceed his average 2015 production (9.4 points per game, standard scoring). He has double-digit fantasy points in four of his past six games. We know what’s possible for Evans. 150 yards and a score are entirely doable. 10+ points are quite likely. We don't *know* anything. But we have evidence that his potential is real and realizable.
And so, Evans’ historical record suggests that he’s a solid Week 15 bet. At a time when injuries have ravaged lineups and waiver wires are scoured like gold mines, it’s a worthwhile risk to start someone who’s done more with little than possibly any other receiver this season.