Based on preseason ADPs across all of the popular fantasy sites (as compiled by Fantasy Pros), among the top 10 drafted players at QB, RB, WR, and TE, 32.5% will end the season having missed 4+ games. 23% missed Week 16's contests, which in most fantasy leagues constitutes the Super Bowl.
Every season, injuries ravage real and fantasy teams alike. But we can look back on the preseason and figure out whether any could have been anticipated. What risks do we take drafting injury-prone players, and knowing what we know now, are we willing to take similar risks next season?
Let's look at some examples:
(1) Arian Foster -- I drafted him in two of my three leagues. He was my 21st ranked RB (his ADP was 22), but I took him 29th among RBs in both leagues. Clearly, I knew what I was getting into, but the risk was worth it. Had Foster panned out, I would have had an absolute steal in both leagues. Instead, I burned a 6th and 8th rounder, respectively, which in a season like this one was easy to compensate for on the waiver wire.
(2) Todd Gurley -- ACL surgery scared away a lot of drafters. But Gurley's upside and youth made him a potential top 10 RB. My problem was that I factored Tre Mason too heavily in the equation, figuring Gurley would split time as the Rams eased their franchise running back into action. Instead, the rookie needed only one warm-up game before taking the reins and never looking back. Among RBs he went 11th, 21st, and an unbelievable 32nd in my three leagues, reflecting the uncertainty many had.
Oh, and why didn't I take him in the league he went 32nd? That was my 20-team league. I went RB-RB-QB and then landed Keenan Allen 17 picks earlier. In hindsight, Gurley was the obvious choice. At the time, I thought I was set with Matt Forte and Lamar Miller.
(3) Peyton Manning -- I was fairly blunt this preseason about the risks of drafting Peyton, even urging people to grab a second QB1 as a security blanket. I avoided him in all three leagues because I couldn't envision him living up to even modest expectations.
(4) DeMarco Murray -- I was even more forboding about the Eagles' prized offseason acquisition, writing this summer that there was no way Murray would come close to last year's numbers, and that history showed RBs with his previous year's workload level stood almost no shot of remaining healthy. In the end, this All-Pro-caliber RB ran for 3.5 YPC behind a terrific offensive line. Those who heeded the warnings escaped unscathed.
(5) Andre Ellington -- He was an easy one. My 37th ranked preseason RB, Ellington somehow had an ADP of 19. The oft-injured third-year back won't be in the fantasy conversation in the near future unless he joins a new team or if David Johnson gets hurt--and even then, he'll likely never be draft worthy.
(6) Darren McFadden -- I was completely off on McFadden, who I predicted wouldn't amass more than something like 500 yards this season. It was an odd season in Dallas, with preseason top 25 RB Joseph Randle now out of the NFL and Lance Dunbar missing most of the year with an injury. DMC stepped up and, despite my warnings, returned RB2 value while enjoying his best season since 2010. I had believed the odds were not in his favor, but those of you who saw things differently proved to be prophetic.
(7) Rob Gronkowski -- There was some good debate on this blog this summer about Gronk. I shared why I wouldn't take him in the first round this season, expressing concerns that anyone with his injury history wasn't worth an all-important first rounder. Others disagreed with great points. Fast-forward to today, and I'm surprised he's played 14 of 15 games. That alone makes him more valuable heading into next season, with two straight largely healthy seasons under his belt.
But the bigger concern is whether he remains first-round worth due to positional dominance. True, he's on pace to slightly exceed last year's numbers. And the gap between him and the next tier of TEs remains sizable (15-20%). But in his past two seasons, Gronk's had only two games with 18+ points (standard scoring). 80 yards and a TD nearly every game is fantastic. But is it "top 12" fantastic, even for a TE? That'll be the question heading into next season, when Jordan Reed, Greg Olsen, Gary Barnidge, Tyler Eifert, or Delanie Walker might offer managers steals in round 4-6.
Every season, injuries ravage real and fantasy teams alike. But we can look back on the preseason and figure out whether any could have been anticipated. What risks do we take drafting injury-prone players, and knowing what we know now, are we willing to take similar risks next season?
Let's look at some examples:
(1) Arian Foster -- I drafted him in two of my three leagues. He was my 21st ranked RB (his ADP was 22), but I took him 29th among RBs in both leagues. Clearly, I knew what I was getting into, but the risk was worth it. Had Foster panned out, I would have had an absolute steal in both leagues. Instead, I burned a 6th and 8th rounder, respectively, which in a season like this one was easy to compensate for on the waiver wire.
(2) Todd Gurley -- ACL surgery scared away a lot of drafters. But Gurley's upside and youth made him a potential top 10 RB. My problem was that I factored Tre Mason too heavily in the equation, figuring Gurley would split time as the Rams eased their franchise running back into action. Instead, the rookie needed only one warm-up game before taking the reins and never looking back. Among RBs he went 11th, 21st, and an unbelievable 32nd in my three leagues, reflecting the uncertainty many had.
Oh, and why didn't I take him in the league he went 32nd? That was my 20-team league. I went RB-RB-QB and then landed Keenan Allen 17 picks earlier. In hindsight, Gurley was the obvious choice. At the time, I thought I was set with Matt Forte and Lamar Miller.
(3) Peyton Manning -- I was fairly blunt this preseason about the risks of drafting Peyton, even urging people to grab a second QB1 as a security blanket. I avoided him in all three leagues because I couldn't envision him living up to even modest expectations.
(4) DeMarco Murray -- I was even more forboding about the Eagles' prized offseason acquisition, writing this summer that there was no way Murray would come close to last year's numbers, and that history showed RBs with his previous year's workload level stood almost no shot of remaining healthy. In the end, this All-Pro-caliber RB ran for 3.5 YPC behind a terrific offensive line. Those who heeded the warnings escaped unscathed.
(5) Andre Ellington -- He was an easy one. My 37th ranked preseason RB, Ellington somehow had an ADP of 19. The oft-injured third-year back won't be in the fantasy conversation in the near future unless he joins a new team or if David Johnson gets hurt--and even then, he'll likely never be draft worthy.
(6) Darren McFadden -- I was completely off on McFadden, who I predicted wouldn't amass more than something like 500 yards this season. It was an odd season in Dallas, with preseason top 25 RB Joseph Randle now out of the NFL and Lance Dunbar missing most of the year with an injury. DMC stepped up and, despite my warnings, returned RB2 value while enjoying his best season since 2010. I had believed the odds were not in his favor, but those of you who saw things differently proved to be prophetic.
(7) Rob Gronkowski -- There was some good debate on this blog this summer about Gronk. I shared why I wouldn't take him in the first round this season, expressing concerns that anyone with his injury history wasn't worth an all-important first rounder. Others disagreed with great points. Fast-forward to today, and I'm surprised he's played 14 of 15 games. That alone makes him more valuable heading into next season, with two straight largely healthy seasons under his belt.
But the bigger concern is whether he remains first-round worth due to positional dominance. True, he's on pace to slightly exceed last year's numbers. And the gap between him and the next tier of TEs remains sizable (15-20%). But in his past two seasons, Gronk's had only two games with 18+ points (standard scoring). 80 yards and a TD nearly every game is fantastic. But is it "top 12" fantastic, even for a TE? That'll be the question heading into next season, when Jordan Reed, Greg Olsen, Gary Barnidge, Tyler Eifert, or Delanie Walker might offer managers steals in round 4-6.