Week 9 Thursday Night Football Predictions

Tonight's matchup could not be more lopsided: the undefeated Bengals facing a home matchup vs. their bitter rivals, the Browns--who are playing without starter Josh McCown.  What's not to love about starting Dalton, Hill, Gio, Green, Marvin, Eifert, Cincy's DST, Nugent, and even Sanu?  Anything less than four TDs and 31+ points will be shocking.

It's the kind of game where, if you have Dalton and Green, or Hill and Gio, or any good combo of Cincy players, you could put your opponent on their heels.  Being down big early sometimes forces Jo-Jo managers to go bold--too bold. Trailing 35-0 heading into Sunday, and projected to lose by 30, they might decide that a perfectly good rostered player "projected" to get 8 points should be replaced by a guy who last week had a fluky 15 points due to circumstances that no longer apply.

Burying an opponent on Thursday increases the probability that they'll make dumb decisions.  So today's the day to start the obvious Cincy guys, as well as the hit-or-miss players that are more likely to hit (e.g. Marvin and Cincy's DST).

A note on Gio: As most of you know, I valued Hill far more than I did Gio this preseason, and all season I've remains higher on Hill.  But last week something interested happened: Hill out-touched his backfield mate 16-3.  It messed with a lot of people's teams--managers who were counting on Gio to maintain his very high floor of 7+ points.  This week I'm anticipating a sharp rebound for the Gio, who Cincy needs to keep involved as the best "1b" RB in the NFL, save maybe Dion Lewis.  Gio is a near lock for 10+ points.  In daily leagues, starting both Gio and a very cheap Hill *should* net you 25 combined points, though I believe 35 is realistic.

On the other side of the ball, Travis Benjamin has been at his best this year with Johnny Manziel behind center.  And Gary Barnidge is the second highest scoring TE in all of fantasy.  I'd be hard-pressed to bench either guy unless I had a TE1 and a WR2 to replace them with.

In other news, Indy Sports Central's Mike Chappell heard yesterday that T.Y. Hilton just had an MRI on his foot.  It's still in the rumor phase, but with two brutal games and a bye these next three weeks, Hilton will be lucky to get 10 total points by the time we reach Week 12.

Cards' head coach Bruce Arians said Michael Floyd will "probably" jump John Brown on the depth chart.  Most of you remember that Floyd was Arizona's future #1 WR when he came onto the scene a few years ago, but last year started taking a backseat to Brown.  Floyd has big-play ability and is a fantastic buy-low WR if your opponent isn't aware of the news.  Similarly, with Brown's injury problems and possible demotion, he's a solid sell-high guy.

Finally, Christine Michael: When the Cowboys signed him, my response was "Who cares."  It was still Joseph Randle's job to lose, and Darren McFadden would be involved as long as he was healthy.

Well, a lot has changed in a couple of weeks.  Randle is gone.  and DMC is an injury away from potentially ceding the job to Michael.  Let's not forget: McFadden is one of the most injury-prone RBs of the past decade.  He makes Andre Ellington look like Cal Ripken (well, not really, but I wanted to write that).

Michael is now a must-own RB handcuff.  McFadden is unlikely to be healthy for the fantasy playoffs.  Michael is a better bet than DMC to post RB2 numbers down the stretch.