Week 10 Thursday Night Football Predictions

When facing the Jets or Bills this season, opposing team's #1 WRs have, on average, been barely startable in most standard scoring leagues.  Led by one of the NFL's best cornerback tandems, Buffalo has yielded 522 yards and three TDs to #1 wideouts, for an average of 8.75 points per game.  Against Darrelle Revis and the Jets, #1 WRs have averaged 8.15 points per game (471 yards, three scores total).  My suggestion is to bench Sammy Watkins and Brandon Marshall if you have a competent WR3+ on your bench--someone like a Marvin Jones or Willie Snead or Jordan Matthews with solid 10+ point potential.

At first glance, each team's running games are also liabilities.  The Jets' D leads the league in rushing yards yielded per game, while the Bills are fifth.  And when you consider that LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams might split touches, will you be satisfied with 16 carries for 65 yards?  Or nine carries for 40?  When you consider the Jets have given up only two rushing TDs this year, 4-7 points each for McCoy and Williams are realistic expectations.

Meanwhile, Chris Ivory is fourth in RB fantasy points despite missing Week 3 with an injury.  Should we be scared away by the fact that, in addition to Buffalo's strong defensive line, Ivory has only 43 yards on 38 carries in his last two games?  The RB standout publicly ripped his o-line this week.  I'm betting this unit rebounds, and that Ivory gets 27+ touches, giving him a great shot at 12+ points.  He's a poor DFS play based on price, but a solid RB2 with upside in regular leagues.

In six games, Tyrod Taylor is averaging 18.8 fantasy points in standard leagues.  Extended through nine weeks (if he hadn't missed two due to injury), he'd be 11th in QB fantasy points.  Ryan Fitzpatrick would be 13th if we extrapolated his numbers based on (essentially) missing Week 8.  But despite posting low-end QB1 / high-end QB2 numbers, I don't view either QB as startable in a week where field goal kicking and maybe one or two DST TDs will dominate the landscape.

So beyond Ivory and maybe the indomitable Eric Decker (9+ fantasy points in all seven games this season), no one is startable tonight except for defenses (preferably the Jets) and kickers.  Should be an exciting game for those who love great football on both sides of the line.  For those who love racking up fantasy points, go to sleep early and wake up Sunday morning.