Week 12 Predictions

The most common "Who should I start" question I've gotten the past few days is Gary Barnidge vs. Jordan Reed. Both have fantastic matchups. Reed has slightly more targets per game this year, but Barnidge has more fantasy points per game (10 vs. 9 in standard leagues). My answer each time is essentially the same: Reed is a significant (20%?) injury risk every time he takes the field. If you're willing to take that risk, Reed is the better play. All things being equal--if you factor in the possibility that Reed will pull up lame in the 1st quarter--Barnidge is safer. My final thought is that I'd start Barnidge.

Another fairly common question: What to do with Jarvis Landry. It all comes back to Ryan Tannehill, experts' 23rd ranked Week 12 QB. Last week I predicted a snap-back performance from Tannehill; instead, he was only the 15th highest scoring QB--well below what I anticipated. The latest news from the Miami Herald is that the Fins' coaches view Tannehill as nothing more than a game manager. Last year's top 10 QB is now ranked 16th in fantasy points. Is the situation hopeless?

Not this week. I'm doubling down on Tannehill and, by extension, Landry. Landry is questionable with a knee injury, but is expected to start. Darrelle Revis being sidelined is a game changer. I'm expecting Landry to return top 15 WR numbers and Tannehill to post top 8 QB numbers. If Miami loses, they're essentially done for the season. I think they'll rise to the occasion, led by a motivated Tannehill capable of proving his detractors wrong.

Finally, is DeSean Jackson worth a start? Ranked only 26th this week, I can see why people would be skeptical of one of the fantasy's biggest boom-bust options. But I believe we'll see "great" DJax today, as Washington leans on its (sometimes) star receiver. The stakes couldn't be higher: A win moves Washington into first place (via tiebreakers) in the NFL East; a loss pushes them two games out with only five to play. I believe DJax will be a top 10 fantasy WR this week.